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View Diary: VA-GOV: Hints of Low Turnout--Who Will Benefit? (64 comments)

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  •  going to disagree on impact of NoVa turnout (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    oortdust, kestrel9000

    remember that NoVa is much more than Jim Moran's 8th CD, including the 11th, much of he 10th, and part of the 1st.  The further away from Arlington and Alexandria you get the less influence Jim Moran wields.

    The crosstabs of the PPP poll show that in area code 703, which is NoVA, Deeds was actually beating Moran.  In this case it is probably the result of two factors

    1.  Moran's early attacks were on McAuliffe, and in  a 3 way race with attacks of A against B voters often turn to C
    1.  less connected voters who don't know that much about any of the candidates (except perhaps McAuliffe, who has been a national figure) are likely to be heavily influenced by Post endorsement.

    Deeds camp always felt that if they could get 1/4 of NoVa vote they would win.  If they are getting much over that - and PPP shows 38% -  there is no way Moran can win even if the NoVa share is in the high 30s.

    do we still have a Republic and a Constitution if our elected officials will not stand up for them on our behalf?

    by teacherken on Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 08:32:42 AM PDT

    •  I haven't seen any Moran advertising. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      conlakappa

      I'm in his district, barely.  Creigh & Terry have been all over the airwaves, and all over the road medians.  I didn't see any Moran signs up until the very day after Creigh's "Endorsed by the Washington Post" yard signs went up all over Route 50.

      It's like Moran just assumed his name would be enough and he hasn't really bothered with NoVa.

      Most people I speak with, including Arlington Drinking Liberally, seem more inclined towards Creigh Deeds.

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