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View Diary: VA-GOV: Election Day In Virginia--Early Turnout Appears Light (254 comments)

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  •  Moran is actually against gay marriage (0+ / 0-)

    Although he does support repealing the anti-gay marriage amendment to the VA constitution. The process of repealing an amendment dictates that he will be unable to do so, although I like the idea of it.

    -1.50, -3.95 | VA 2009: Deeds / Wagner / Shannon

    by Red Sox on Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 10:49:49 AM PDT

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    •  Yes. (0+ / 0-)

      But at least he didn't vote to place the damned measure on the ballot in the FIRST PLACE.

      •  Indeed he didn't (0+ / 0-)

        But I understand that he did exactly as Creigh Deeds did and voted against Marshall-Newman becoming law. Good for Brian, and I hope he continues to fight for good causes in whatever new role he takes on after today.

        -1.50, -3.95 | VA 2009: Deeds / Wagner / Shannon

        by Red Sox on Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 11:17:51 AM PDT

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        •  I'll absolutely heartily throw in behind (0+ / 0-)

          Deeds if he wins the nomination, and volunteer for him coming up to the general.  Certainly can't say the same for McAuliffe.

          However.  The reason I didn't back him in the beginning was, in part, because of that stupid ballot initiative.  He voted against the initiative, yes - but he voted FOR the actions that allowed it to get to a vote in the first place.  On that alone, I couldn't back him in this primary.  I do also find him very much more moderate than I would like overall.

          I really wouldn't hang my hat on the idea that No. VA is going to have lower-than-expected turnout.  We're getting a lot of reporting (I'm sure you would get the same at a Deeds campaign office) that turnout is neither high nor low - it's right where most expected it for this kind of primary.  Charlottesville is highER than other areas, but not as high as you indicate.  This will likely come down to the wire - and I'm quite pleased that it does NOT look like it will fall into McAuliffe's column.  :)

          •  I'm not hanging my hat on anything (0+ / 0-)

            and Deeds polls better than the other two in NoVA right now anyway, so good for him. Deeds does best with committed primary voters, so he's obviously helped by a low turnout, but his victory isn't contingent on that.

            I don't think it's really going to come down to the wire--you've seen the trends as much as I have. However it shakes out, though, I'll be happy to turn my fire on Taliban Bob as of tomorrow.

            -1.50, -3.95 | VA 2009: Deeds / Wagner / Shannon

            by Red Sox on Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 11:33:43 AM PDT

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            •  Seriously though, Red Sox. (0+ / 0-)

              We all kind of know one another in Democratic circles here in No VA, particularly since the monumental effort for Obama last year.  Democrats have split up, of course, between Moran, Deeds & McAuliffe.  and I can't find a single friend from any of the three camps who takes the PPP or SUSA polls seriously, simply because their turnout model was through-the-roof AND they were robopolls AND their methodology for predicting likely primary voters was bizarre.  We all just kind of went to our own corners, put our heads down, and focused on our own strategies.

              So is Deeds up in No. VA?  Difficult to say.  He may be - but I doubt it.  And I don't think you can rely on either of those polls to say that this is, in fact, true.

              •  I used to trash IVR polling myself (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                RenaRF

                but their results aren't really different from live polling. And the last live poll, the Suffolk University poll, also had Deeds ahead. Moreover, SUSA broke it out into past primary voters and among them, Deeds does even better than among the regular primary electorate, so in a 4% or so turnout race, he does best with the most important demographic.

                Will Deeds win NoVA? I can't say for sure, but he doesn't need to. I will say that I expected Brian to run a better campaign and if he's the nominee, he better right his ship immediately.

                -1.50, -3.95 | VA 2009: Deeds / Wagner / Shannon

                by Red Sox on Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 11:49:48 AM PDT

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                •  Isn't it funny (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  VA Gal, Red Sox

                  that both of us - regardless of the fact that we support different people - kind of uniformly discount McAuliffe at this stage??

                  Whew!

                  Regardless - we'll be partying in Alexandria as the returns come in tonight!  :)

                  •  started Moran - switched to Deeds (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    karenc, Red Sox, seabrook

                    I have to agree with Red Sox - not just because I'm a huge Red Sox fan.  Hated Terry all the way for being a carpetbagger.  Should be for Moran as the most progressive (and from MA like me).  But I felt he ran a terrible campaign and that Deeds ran a good one.  

                    Bothered by Deeds voting to put the gay marriage amendment on the ballot and by his views on guns.  But those views are the views of our legislature - we're not going to see progressive change on either front with Moran or anyone else in office.

                    If Moran wins today I will be behind him 100%, but I venture to say that he will not win if he's turned off people like me who are 100% his natural base.

                    •  It's a shame (0+ / 0-)

                      that some of his "natural base" has gone for Deeds.  But I can say also that a great deal of his natural base is not only voting for him but putting in serious time to help him get across the line after 7pm tonight.

                      Total candor: I didn't know when I woke today how this thing was going to go down.  The only thing I believed, however, was that McAuliffe was no longer really a threat in this contest.

                      But now - I'm hearing:

                      "Falls Church has come in at 7 percent voter turnout so far, which is pretty high, and it's 6 percent for Arlington," Nancy Rodrigues, secretary of the State Board of Elections, said just after noon. "The rest of the state is, er, low."

                      I got a little excited at that.  :)

                    •  I'm another for Deeds... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Red Sox, redding888

                      who is very, very Progressive...but I want a Dem to win the Gov. seat. And Deeds is smart, likeable, and real.  Can you just imagine if McDonnell wins?... We'd have to listen to the blah-de-blahs scream that the GOPosaurs are back.  I'll work really hard this summer/fall for whoever is the nominee...but sure hope it's Deeds.

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