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View Diary: IRAN: Time for a Bit of Analysis (290 comments)

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  •  independent analysts have questioned it (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NYFM, DWG, FrankCornish, Olon

    Because normally they report one area at a time, rather than number of boxes counted, as they did on Friday.  Plus as the counts came in the percentages didn't change, indicating support with uniform across the country, which is highly questionable.
    Ahmadinejad supposedly even won Mousavi's hometown!

    •  See also Nate Silver (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KroneckerD, FrankCornish, Olon

      over at FiveThirtyEight for an analysis of regional vote irregularities between 2005 and 2009 elections.

      It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, its wrong - Richard Feynman

      by drdave on Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 10:43:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That seems pretty damning in my book (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FrankCornish, Olon

      The Azeri Turks, of which Mousavi is one, have historically always supported Turks in elections and they are the dominant ethnicity in this district. Sure smells funny to me. I just do not see that there is any way to preserve anything from this past election but that decision rests with the Iranians. I don't remember them offering their analysis and guidance when Bush was "winning" razor thin elections that boiled down to a single state with election apparatus controlled by Republicans.

      Conservative dyslexia: underserved = undeserved

      by DWG on Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 10:44:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the percentages DID change (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FrankCornish, Olon

      There's something of a myth about this, based on misinterpretation of an already pretty misleading graph.

      And the provincial totals are by no means as "uniform" as they've been cracked up to be. They may be bogus, but they aren't uniform. (Nate Silver's website may be as good a place as any to look at this.)

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