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View Diary: UK NGO Experts Expose Ahmadinejad Vote Rigging (142 comments)

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  •  Easy enough with MS Paint (25+ / 0-)

    Paste your PrintScreen into MS Paint, select just the important part, copy and paste into a new MS Paint document.

    Because it's a simple line graphic, it compresses better as PNG, so use that format when saving.

    Definitely not a good idea to post your entire screen as you can inadvertently leave identifying personal information in the image.

    You can use this one if you like: Figure 5.

    I may make you feel, but I can't make you think.

    by Jacob Bartle on Sun Jun 21, 2009 at 05:52:54 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Done. You did the work. Thanks. (14+ / 0-)

      That's what I love about this place. You made it so easy.

      "It's the planet, stupid."

      by FishOutofWater on Sun Jun 21, 2009 at 06:03:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's Gambling Going on at Rick's Casino? (5+ / 0-)

        Round up the usual suspects!


        John Deering, Arkansas Democrat Gazette

        The Week in Editorial Cartoons, June 14th - A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

        by JekyllnHyde on Sun Jun 21, 2009 at 10:18:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Fraud? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JekyllnHyde, TigerStar337

          The Chatham House report shows that this fraud appears to be massive on a broad scale, not minor corruption that wouldn't change the election.

          Appears?  Okay.  I have no doubt that voting fraud occurred.  After all, we see it in our national elections every four years.  But on the scale you're suggesting?  I'm doubtful.

          Let me just say up front that I don't think this 'Revolt of The Affluent' in Iran has had any chance at all of succeeding in establishing a government in Iran that would be a substantial improvement over the current government.  What we have been seeing is a power struggle between the educated, affluent minority of Iranians who want to enjoy a more secular, less-restrictive social environment and the "Islamic State" that is run by the most powerful block of clerics in the country.  The only problem for the reform coalition is that they don't have anywhere near the kind of political support they need within the country in order to be able to pull off a big upset election.

          Wish all you want, but none of that wishing is going to change the fact that in developing countries like Iran, the number of affluent, educated people in the nation are only a small minority of the entire electorate.  Iran may be oil-rich, but all of that oil wealth is not enough to enable more than half of the electorate to enjoy all the benefits of affluence: cell phones, computers with internet, etc.  Not with the sanctions we are imposing.

          I'm frankly amazed that so many people managed to convince themselves that Mousavi's support was so wide and deep.  It just isn't.  Sure, he has the support of perhaps the majority of the upper-middle- and upper-class, which is still a small fraction of the entire Iranian electorate.  Sure there's a lot of young people in the country, but the middle- to upper-middle-class youth is actually quite small.

          Like most other developing countries, Iran's electorate is heavily represented by the poor and working class.  Democracy is apparently new enough in Iran to get large numbers of these people to turn out on voting day, especially when the incumbent---who presents himself as their advocate (sincerely?)---is able to use some of his power to GOTV for his candidacy.  Add to that the support of the religious clerics, and it's not surprising that he would win another election outright.  

          Yes, times have been tough for the poor in Iran, but it's not all Ahmadinejad's fault, given the sanctions and the failed global economy, etc.  I'm sure the voting poor heard these arguments and were probably persuaded by them.  Potatoes were more symbolic than anything else.  

          The good news I'm celebrating is the abundant evidence that Iran really is a functioning democracy.  It may not be any more 'pure' than our own democracy is, but no "dictatorship" would ever have allowed the kind of criticism that Mousavi leveled at Ahmadinejad during the campaign.  He would have been arrested and prevented from stoking up the passions of his supporters.  Both the current administration and the religious clerics have demonstrated that they are actually quite tolerant of political dissent; far more so than our militarist class is willing to admit.

          Makes it all that more difficult to justify launching a pre-emptive attack on a country for possibly seeking to develop a nuclear deterrent.  That makes me happy.  And yes, I would have been just as happy if Mousavi had won for that very same reason.

          •  James, the massive turnout is a key (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JekyllnHyde, BYw

            to understanding the election.

            In 2005 when the more liberal reform candidate was eliminated in the first round, the turnout dropped heavily for the final round.

            The best explanation for the huge turnout is that voters wanted to throw the bum out.

            Now, this is my last two cents on the numbers part or the elections (for those who say Ahmadinejad got the same voters' percentage in this year's elections as he did in 2005). The 2005 elections were held in two rounds. In the first round the voter turnout was about 63%, but (and this is the significant number) went down to only 48% in the second round.  

            Why? Because in the first round, a 'reformist' candidate (Karrubi) was in the running, but he got bumped off in the first round. So, people faced with the very uninspiring contest between Mr. Corruption himself (Rafsanjani) and Ahmadinejad (former Pasdar), they chose to stay home for the most part. So, Ahmadinejad's 61% in the second round back then, was from only 48% of the voters. That is NOT equal to (in fact, it's just over half) the same percentage of 85% the government says participated this year.

            There is another significant piece of knowledge in the above numbers. If you pause a little and pay attention to the difference between the elections turnout in the first and the second round in 2005 (going from 61% to 48%), you should be able to see what Iranians know for a fact: that the turnout increases ONLY when reformists run. So, the huge jump from 48% turnout to 85% can be attributed to the fact that people had come to vote Ahmadinejad out of office! The fact that millions of people have taken to the streets across the country proves it.  

            "It's the planet, stupid."

            by FishOutofWater on Mon Jun 22, 2009 at 05:57:20 AM PDT

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            •  Well... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JekyllnHyde

              ...I think there is another way to interpret the turnout percentages in 2005 that I think is more plausible.  It may very well be that the huge turnout for the first round was supplied mostly by anti-reformist voters, who were fearful of the possibility that 'radicals' might have a chance to win.  

              Imagine Ahmadinejad's GOTV operation and the clerics' GOTV operation inspired greatly by such fears in the first round.  Then, after Karrubi failed to make the final round, the pressure was off, and both the 'religious' and/or poor voters and the GOTV teams felt that much less was at stake, so they didn't bother to show up (along with perhaps many of the reform supporters).  

              And just how certain are we that the supporters of Karrubi did not turn out in a big way in 2005 for the final round of voting, if only to vote for the candidate they feared less?  More educated/prosperous voters are far more likely to turn out for any election, compared to less educated/prosperous voters, aren't they?

            •  FishOutofWater - OT - could you email me? (0+ / 0-)

              my addy in profile. i'm organizing a eco blogathon and would love you to join us. :)

              Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Mohandas K. Gandhi

              by Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse on Mon Jun 22, 2009 at 07:51:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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