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View Diary: [UPDATED] Al Jazeera On Advance of Fundamentalism in US Military (237 comments)

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  •  Ummm (0+ / 0-)

    Another claim.

    Would you like to prove this one?  You are going to have to analyse each and every anomaly.  Which no one can yet do.

    It seems like you are not critisising Al Jazeera for bias but complaining it doesn't promote your bias.

    Since you are biased you can't see their clean reporting.

    Best Wishes, Demena Left/Right: -8.38; Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36

    by Demena on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 08:49:00 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, there is proof. (0+ / 0-)

      It doesn't prove with absolute certainty the election was fixed. It proves that there is a 99.3% chance that it was fixed. Statistical analysis of the reported vote tally shows that there is only a 0.7% chance that the vote wasn't rigged. From "Benford's Law anomalies in the 2009 Iranian presidential election"

      The results of the 2009 Iranian presidential election presented by the Iranian Ministry of the Interior (MOI) are analysed based on Benford's Law and an empirical variant of Benford's Law. The null hypothesis that the vote count distributions satisfy these distributions is rejected at a significance of [p0.007].

      Most people are not well enough versed in mathematics to follow that quantitative argument. A similar argument in a form that is more accessible to the layperson was in the WaPo.

      Even more evidence, compiled by Juan Cole

      It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and  is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

      It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

      An unbiased person would accept the 99.3% probability that the election was rigged.

      This Space For Rent

      by xynz on Sat Jun 27, 2009 at 11:28:40 PM PDT

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      •  I'm sure it was tampered with. (0+ / 0-)

        I am sure that part of it was rigged.  I doubt there is any serious question about that.  Nevertheless there remains no proof.  A strong statistical indication but that is all.  Improbable events occur on a regular basis.  There are so many possible improbable events that one hell of a lot of them occur.  So, yes most probably rigged but we don't know for sure.

        Then there is the issue of just how much it was rigged.  Who would have won if you take the rigging out?  We can't find that out for sure either.

        Not to mention who the hell rigged what.

        To me, from the size of the landslide it looks like both sides stacked it.  Ahmadinejad because he wanted to win, Mousavi because he wanted to discredit the electoral process.

        Best Wishes, Demena Left/Right: -8.38; Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36

        by Demena on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 12:09:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh. My. God. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BoxerDave

          To me, from the size of the landslide it looks like both sides stacked it.  Ahmadinejad because he wanted to win, Mousavi because he wanted to discredit the electoral process.

          That has to be the most ridiculous assertion that I have read about this election.

          This Space For Rent

          by xynz on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 12:32:13 AM PDT

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          •  But maybe the most accurate. (0+ / 0-)

            You looked at what he was saying before the election?

            It may be cynical but it isn't ridiculous.

            Best Wishes, Demena Left/Right: -8.38; Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36

            by Demena on Sun Jun 28, 2009 at 12:38:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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