Skip to main content

View Diary: CBS Jumps a Whale Shark (140 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  the trouble with saying the earth is cooling is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dinotrac

    that it's not cooling enough to stop the ice from melting.  So if a news disseminator is going to make that claim, they should make it with all kinds of caveats. Otherwise, it's very misleading to the public, who takes it asa sign that the climate crisis is bunk and we can just carry on.

    •  It does seem to be cooling -- for now. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DarkSyde

      If it keeps cooling, great.

      I wouldn't take bets on it, however.

      Inconvenient numbers are inconvenient, sure. But...there is no better way to look like a liar than to pretend they aren't there.

      My favorite response is, "Yeah, I hope it continues, but I want to see what happens when the Chinese decide they're tired of breathing all that crap they put in the air before I get too excied." and things like that.

      Y'know - that might actually be a great leadin to a talk about active amelioration -- things that counteract the effect of warming and the possibility that we might actually be able (at a price) to save our sorry asses.

      Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

      by dinotrac on Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 11:01:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dinotrac

        really is no basis to say the earth is cooling. There is a tiny down tick from record highs that, so far, is far less noticiable than half a dozen such patterns found in the record going back for 100 years. We expect jiggling and noise in a system this complex even in the face of continued, growing forcing. If we define cooling in this way, ignoring up ticks and trend lines while scrutinizing the opposite on arbitrarily small scales, then the earth could be said to be 'cooling' all the way to hypothetical P-T extinction level temperatures and beyond.

        •  You're being too rational. (0+ / 0-)

          Persuasion is, in part, the art of not making the listener feel like an idiot.  Tell somebody they're an idiot and they will tune you out or worse.

          Besides, there absolutely is a basis to say that the earth is cooling, just as there has been for a number of prior periods.

          Sometimes the data is just funky -- after WWII, for example, ocean measurements that had been nearly the sole domain of American ships during the war, were supplemented with British measurements.  The British collected samples in uninsulated buckets hoisted on deck, whereas American measurements were taken at ships' engine cooling intakes. The British method understated and the  the American method overstated the actual temperature, resulting in a net decline once the British measurements were again available.

          Whatever the case...the data is the data and its the best we've got.   You can't live by the data without being willing to die by it, too.

          Lots of people want global warming to go away.  They're going to see that five years and want it to mean something.  They're not idiots and they don't want their children to fry.  There's nothing wrong with seeing their half-full glass and gently lead them to see that the water's likely to evaporate.

          Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

          by dinotrac on Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 02:28:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There is no such thing as "too rational" (0+ / 0-)

            Mercy is better spent on our progeny than on today's idiots, who have had their chances and wasted them.  Try to explain radiative forcing to them with friendly analogies like the "greenhouse effect" or a "blanket" and they turn back around with pathetic, disingenuous questions like "why doesn't that blanket keep the heat out in the first place?"  Better to force them to really understand something as prerequisite to treating them like valid contributors to discourse on a subject than to donate them the illusions of knowledge and respect they haven't earned.  It's their own ideology I'm expressing bitterly, let them live by it.

            Persuasion is, in part, the art of not making the listener feel like an idiot.  Tell somebody they're an idiot and they will tune you out or worse.

            Reagan, the "great communicator," disproves the claim that making opponents feel smart or respected is necessary.  His primary political skill was portraying all dissent as idiotic.  My task in that respect is simpler, because deniers really are just idiots, and paid-off professional liars.  All I have to do is remember that they've each had years to become informed, and squandered them or misspent them, and then I can overcome my generous and merciful impulses and focus on exposing the truth, no matter how much it hurts liars.  And the truth really is more important than pitiful, pitiless conservatives' poor tender feelings.

            Besides, there absolutely is a basis to say that the earth is cooling, just as there has been for a number of prior periods.

            No, there absolutely is not.  50% of all the carbon dioxide humanity has polluted into the atmosphere, we have polluted during the 32 years since 1977.  The other half was spread over the previous centuries of the Industrial Revolution, so the sensible approach is to look first for correlation where the suspected driver, increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, is strongest.  Doing so shows that global mean temperature has rise almost uniformly during the period in question, 1977 - 2009:

            http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090116163206.htm

            while solar irradiance oscillates through nearly three full 11-year cycles, with little variation in maxima and minima, but if anything a slight decrease, during the same period:

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation


            So obviously it's not the Sun making the planet warmer the past 32 years, and making us excruciatingly hot the past 13.  But then, what could it possibly be?

            http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html


            Remember that first graph?  Look again at the right third of it, from 1977 - present, and then look back at the third graph.  Repeat, until you get it.

            Jeepers, there's that correlation, staring you in the face!  Leave it to those quirky "scientists" to have it all figured out before anybody else even starts wondering!  But, but people want to join in the debate, to feel like they are contributing.  Not to actually contribute necessarily, just to feel like they are contributing.  It's sickening, when you think about it.

            Since 2005 it has been absolutely clear, even to mere interested amateurs like me, that even while solar output has decreased global mean temperature has only plateaued, not dropped to pre-1998 averages.  The 11 warmest years on record have all occurred within the last 13 years, so "there really is no basis to say the earth is cooling."

            If I seem sarcastic, it's because I've met a lot of idiots, and they all seem to believe that their incompetence makes "not making the listener feel like an idiot" my duty.  Well, conservatives' own tactics depend too much on demonizing, marginalizing and ridiculing all dissenters, and they've shown far too little respect for truth and human rights, either for me to owe them any courtesy or to be motivated to show them any pity.  They need to hop on the train or get off the fucking tracks and they need to be quick about it.

            Invest in wind and solar power now. Either they will offer the greatest ROI within 20 years, or we will all be dead.

            by Reed Young on Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 11:46:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sigh, we have met the enemy. (0+ / 0-)

              Reagan, the "great communicator," disproves the claim that making opponents feel smart or respected is necessary.

              Ummm...What is this "opponent" crap?

              Sometimes you have to step out of the political sphere and try just being a person.  Out in the real world, those "oppenents" are just neighbers, co-workers, family members, etc, who also happen to be voters, consumers, volunteers, etc.

              Lots of people can be made to think, if you bother to try.

              Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

              by dinotrac on Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 05:55:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  What is this "neighbers" crap? (0+ / 0-)

                Global warming is proven, the science is in.  See above.  Alan Carlin, Rush Limbaugh, et al, are not my "neighbers," (sic) they're pseudo-scientist, anti-human, corporatist sellouts.

                I've looked many hours for sensible denier arguments, but they are always based rhetorically on the logical fallacy argument from ignorance, aka argument from personal incredulity, which is unfortunately easy to cloak as "skepticism" with nothing more intellectually honest than a few unctuous "what ifs" and citations of one or more revisions of previous science, which the deniers inevitably exaggerate unconscionably.  People who claim to be "certain" that global warming science -- or anything else -- is "uncertain" take a position that is blatantly irrational.  It is one thing to question this prediction of a scientific theory, or that method of reconciling aberrant data.  It is quite another thing to claim, based on nothing but one's own ignorance, that another's work is false, and that is exactly what I have seen every single denier do, in various forms.

                Global warming deniers are not, as a matter of what passes with them for "principle," open to facts which do not comport well with their chosen prejudice for reckless consumption, and they are not my neighbors.  They are my opponents by their own choice to act dishonestly and they know it.  They know that what they argue are not  honest beliefs, but cover for the choice not to admit an inconvenient truth and act rationally upon it.  The evidence is overwhelming.  Ignorance is always possible, and in fact, like youth, it is a condition from which each of us suffers on absolutely every subject at some time, but skepticism about global warming, at this time, is not even remotely plausible.  It is not, to borrow a phrase from an enemy, just another life-style choice, nor subject to difference of opinion or honest disagreement among reasonable people.  Global warming denial is a unforgivable lie about a real, mortal threat to civilization.

                My opponents tolerated no debate on the "weapons of mass destruction" and "ties to al Qaida" that they cut from whole cloth.  My claims, on the contrary, are proven and any benefit of doubt normally "due" as common courtesy to fellow human beings is not applicable on global warming to those corporatist liars.  The gloves are off, and staying off until the last coal plant and the last internal combustion engine in the United States are dismantled and outlawed.

                Invest in wind and solar power now. Either they will offer the greatest ROI within 20 years, or we will all be dead.

                by Reed Young on Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 10:17:49 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Personally, I don't want to beat my friends and (0+ / 0-)

                  neighbors to a pulp.

                  My family?  It gets tempting at times...but that has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

                  Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

                  by dinotrac on Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 08:26:21 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  We're not discussing friends, neighbors or family (0+ / 0-)

                    We're talking about liars:  James Inhofe, Alan Carlin and the Competitive Enterprise Institute, et al.  I agree with Mike Stark, liars and corporatist whores don't deserve my patience, they deserved to be called out in terms fitting the egregiousness of their abuses.  I have better things to do with my time than treat corruption and lies like honest difference of opinion, hoping that eventually they'll all gorge themselves sufficiently at the public trough to just decide to relent.

                    Invest in wind and solar power now. Either they will offer the greatest ROI within 20 years, or we will all be dead.

                    by Reed Young on Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 01:19:08 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Just went back over the thread and realized that (0+ / 0-)

                      I was pretty ambiguous there.  I used "people", thinking  of plain old ordinary people as opposed to political wars, bipartisanship or anything like that.

                      I knew what I meant, and I think it was implied by the way I phrased things, especially this:

                      Sometimes you have to step out of the political sphere and try just being a person.  Out in the real world, those "oppenents" are just neighbers, co-workers, family members, etc, who also happen to be voters, consumers, volunteers, etc.

                      but, maybe not.

                      I don't run in the kind of circles that give me the ear of Congresscritters and the like, so I am content to talk things over with the people I encounter in my life.

                      That's not a worthless thing.  Not only will progress depend on accumulated individual efforts in addition to big old organized thingamajigs, but enough of those ordinary folks making their minds known can have a profound effect on the discussions in DC, especially around election time.

                      Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

                      by dinotrac on Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 03:00:17 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Not ambiguous, context-dropping (0+ / 0-)

                        The thread is about Alan Carlin, remember?  You tried to change the subject, to bitch to me about how I express myself, on politics.

                        Ummm...What is this "opponent" crap?

                        Sometimes you have to step out of the political sphere and try just being a person.

                        And when it's appropriate I do that, but this is a discussion about politics, and in these contests there are opponents, and treating them like "neighbors" has not worked, for at least 30 years of stalled progressive politics.  Stop hassling me and run along you preachy little twit.

                        Invest in wind and solar power now. Either they will offer the greatest ROI within 20 years, or we will all be dead.

                        by Reed Young on Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 10:12:08 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  More importantly, you asserted two fallacies (0+ / 0-)

                        Persuasion is, in part, the art of not making the listener feel like an idiot.  Tell somebody they're an idiot and they will tune you out or worse.

                        Besides, there absolutely is a basis to say that the earth is cooling, just as there has been for a number of prior periods.

                        First, it is not true that granting unearned legitimacy to idiots is a useful means of persuasion, even among your friends and family and neighbors.  You might want to rephrase in gentler terms than I use for these public comments that are viewable to everybody and clearly directed at corporate welfare recipients ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton, et al, but whatever the context of your offline discussions with friends or neighbors, if you want sound, reality-based policies you still have to respect the facts.  That means being honest about which scientific theories are superior and which are inferior, not pandering to ignorance.

                        I already detailed that there is absolutely no legitimate or scientific basis to say that the Earth is cooling.  If your acquaintances believe there is, you don't have to tell them they're idiots outright, but you do have to explain to them that their sources are idiots and corrupt industry mouthpieces.  Pretending to go along with the Competitive Enterprise Institute's lies about legitimate dispute among scientists about the basics of carbon dioxide driven global warming, just wastes everybody's time.  Believe me, I know.

                        Don't presume to lecture me about my manners again.

                        Invest in wind and solar power now. Either they will offer the greatest ROI within 20 years, or we will all be dead.

                        by Reed Young on Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 11:42:05 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site