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View Diary: The Black Swan Myth (154 comments)

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  •  That's the problem here (1+ / 0-)
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    TomP

    the formula to adjust for seasonal factors makes these numbers look better than they are because it has the assumption that there will be a lot of summer layoffs right now. Look at the article I linked to above.  

    The unadjusted numbers showed that new jobless claims actually rose, it's only through adjusting the numbers to reflect the assumption that auto workers will be out for a summer shutdown that we get the impression that jobless claims fell.  It's a statistical artifact.

    http://www.economicpopulist.org

    by ManfromMiddletown on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 11:44:49 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  not really because summer numbers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TomP

      are usually inflated due to increases in service sectors in the summer.

      This is the change I voted for; I was paying attention were you?

      by IL JimP on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 11:54:06 AM PDT

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