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View Diary: The Black Swan Myth (154 comments)

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  •  Will crest when?. (1+ / 0-)
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    bobswern

    In addition, assuming you are right that we are at or near the bottom, which certainly is possible, what is your view regarding a recovery in employment?  

    Are we now going to redefine "full employment" as 7 or 8% and then hope to reach that by ?

    What will be the motor of any recovery?

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by TomP on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 12:22:47 PM PDT

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    •  asdf (6+ / 0-)

      I've mentioned several times I'm looking at growth of 1-2% with an unemployment rate of 7-8%.  Full employment is still 5% (roughly).  

      "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

      by bonddad on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 12:29:02 PM PDT

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      •  I have no read all your posts. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bobswern

        growth of 1-2% with an unemployment rate of 7-8% when?

        And what creates demand for such growth?

        On what do you base your prediction and when will it occur?  

        Most of what I have read suggests we may still have 9.5% or higher unemplyment even at the ned of 2010.  Do you disagree?

        They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

        by TomP on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 12:40:00 PM PDT

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        •  asdf (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TexasTom, Unbozo, TomP, citicenx

          1.) There will be light consumer demand (not enough to drive growth to 3%, but enough to keep us afloat) and an increase in trade from a declining dollar.

          2.) By the end of 2010 we'll still be looking at a minimum unemployment of 7.5%.  It might be better if the stimulus multiplier is there but that's a "wait and see" situation.

          "You think you can intimidate me? Screw you. Choose your Weapon." Eliot Spitzer

          by bonddad on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 12:45:01 PM PDT

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          •  I sure hope you are right. (2+ / 0-)
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            Unbozo, bobswern

            It seems very optimistic, but I hope you're right.

            The thing about the future is that it ain't here yet.  One can make educated guesses.  Different folks focus on different factors and use different models.  Thus, they arrive at different positions.  I truly hope you are right.  Time will tell.

            Take care.

            They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

            by TomP on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 12:58:00 PM PDT

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          •  It would be a lot better a lot faster if (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            New Deal democrat

            Obama and congress created government work programs.

            "be a loyal plastic robot boy in a world that doesn't care" - Frank Zappa

            by Unbozo on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 02:29:53 PM PDT

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