Skip to main content

View Diary: The Black Swan Myth (154 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  OK simple answer (0+ / 0-)

    I don't think Bonddad is saying "the worst is behind us."  I know I haven't said that.

    Many indicators are stabilizing.  Many are still falling.  The Leading indicators have been rising strongly.  But that just means "The worst will probably soon be behind us -- for at least a while."

    CRE always lags residential real estate.  I don't see CRE pulling us down if residential stabilizes (the jury is definitely still out on that one).

    CA is scary, although it seems like a deal may be done.  Once a deal is done, I don't think CA drags us down.

    As to 13% unemployment, well, 25% unemployment in 1933 didn't lead to 30% unemployment -- it was the bottom!  So I don't think high unemployment can itself drag us further down.

    Again, the absolute worst way to forecast is simply to project past trends into the future, viz. "Real estate never goes down!"  That's why I've been focusing on the Leading indicators, and also on the best indicators I've found that were in existence pre-WW2.

    "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

    by New Deal democrat on Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 01:10:39 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site