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View Diary: The Swan is still Black, and We're Still Screwed (212 comments)

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  •  Yes, Bunk. (1+ / 0-)
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    lompe

    You cherry picked a 6 month graph that doesn't show exactly why jobless claims get seasonally adjusted -- there is always a spike up in claims around July 1.

    You are double counting auto layoffs because if you want to add them to the July numbers, then you have to deduct them from the April-June numbers.

    "When the going gets tough, the tough get 'too big to fail'."

    by New Deal democrat on Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 08:35:15 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  This is what I said (13+ / 0-)

      You are double counting auto layoffs because if you want to add them to the July numbers, then you have to deduct them from the April-June numbers.

      Yes, I am saying that you have to subtract them from the earlier numbers.  

      The consequence of that is that the rise in initial claims occurs now after a long period of stable initial claims.

      So the situation look back was better than the seasonal numbers presented it, and now they are worse.

      Second, the model assumes that factories are on summer shutdown right now.  They are not.  Which means that the increase in initial claims will likely be continued until the fall period and beyond. I.E. it will extend across seasons and should not be excluded from seasonally adjusted numbers.

      http://www.economicpopulist.org

      by ManfromMiddletown on Sat Jul 18, 2009 at 08:40:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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