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View Diary: HCR battle: Your Basic Assumptions Are Wrong (57 comments)

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    •  I've tipped you but don't agree with you (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      badger, joanneleon, Unbozo

      I tip you for a well written post but I don't agree with a number of your assumptions.

      The short of it is, RESULTS MATTER!

      You can tout Obama as a smart man and not captive of his crazy conservative advisers but at the end of the day, if REAL CHANGE is not delivered when we have given him all the tools he needed to accomplish this (Clear majorities in both houses), then he alone would be responsible for that failure.

      --Country before party--

      by chipoliwog on Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 07:46:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Results do matter, but as yet we have no idea (0+ / 0-)

        what the final result will be.

        We don't have a senate bill yet.

        We don't know what the Finance Committee will produce, and we don't know how it will be merged with the HELP bill.

        We don't know how the House will modify their bill in response to the Senate's.

        We don't know how the two bills will be merged in conference.

        These are almost all things that are at present simply unknowable. There are also key steps at which the White House will have significant influence, particularly at conference, but I'm sure they'll also have a voice when the Senate is merging its committees' output.

        The only results that ultimately matter are what comes out of conference, and what the voting is on the conference report. The rest of it matters only insofar as a defeat on a vote for passage or a successful filibuster in the Senate would kill the whole process.

        In America, 60% of bankruptcies are because of medical bills, and 80% of those people had health insurance

        by sullivanst on Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 08:50:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The ultimate decision comes when it's signed into (0+ / 0-)

          law, by the president.

          He has a veto pen.  Now, since both Congressional leaders are his colleagues, he won't need to use that veto pen, because he will tell them exactly what he will and won't accept and they will make sure that it's going to end up as a law that he will be willing to sign, or they won't send it to the floor or to conference in the first place.

        •  The President is leader of the Party (0+ / 0-)

          And as such he should very well know the outcome of the legislation as it should be what HE wants.

          So, if HE doesn't want a public option then our problem is with the President and not with Congress.

          --Country before party--

          by chipoliwog on Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 11:06:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But you HAVE NO IDEA what the final bill will be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            so in the meantime, any motive you're assigning to the President, is purely your own thinking.

            It says nothing about the President, and a lot about you.

            Besides, the President guides, cajoles sometimes. But the Constitution is absolutely, unequivocally, clear: he does not write the law.

            Bush, despite having the most disciplined party imaginable and a majority in both houses in the 109th Congress, failed spectacularly in his efforts at Social Security reform and immigration reform.

            The President simply does not get the exact text he wants. It has never worked that way. It was specifically designed not to work that way.

            In America, 60% of bankruptcies are because of medical bills, and 80% of those people had health insurance

            by sullivanst on Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 11:14:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  GWB got many things (0+ / 0-)

              You list Social Security privatization and immigration reform as two spectacular failings and that is true. But look at how much GWB did do and as leader of his party, the laws that were brought forth were at his behest. How many vetoes did he make during his Presidency? Not many.

              He got his way because the Conservatives have an effective communications system and a system of discipline where the legislators by and large get with the program.

              Never mind that GWB was vile, vain, corrupt and lying, they did 8 years of damage with grotesque things like "clear skys initiative" and "healthy forests" which were neither.  

              There is no excuse that we have clear majorities in the Congress and have so much difficulty in getting this done and with maximum benefit to the People.

              --Country before party--

              by chipoliwog on Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 12:12:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He also got his way (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                cydonian

                because "his way" was completely in sync with the most powerful voices in Washington.

                He did the bidding of the corporate lobbies.

                The importance of Social Security and immigration is that they're the only time he tried to buck the flow.

                In America, 60% of bankruptcies are because of medical bills, and 80% of those people had health insurance

                by sullivanst on Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 12:19:47 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Be like LBJ (0+ / 0-)

                  He knew when subcomitteemen took a shit.

                  --Country before party--

                  by chipoliwog on Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 08:22:27 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Thing is, I think Obama truly believes (0+ / 0-)

                    the stuff about changing the tone in Washington. Obviously, that will be impossible to accomplish with the way the Republican party is intent on behaving...

                    But going all LBJ would be the opposite of everything he ever said about how he was going to get stuff done.

                    I'm still willing to let the process play out. Don't forget, we have all three House committees including the public option, as well as the Senate HELP committee. Pelosi's standing firm with the CPC, and the President's reiterating his insistence that cost control is a central pillar of reform, and that he believes the public option is the best way to do cost control. I have confidence that the conference report will include the public option. I have less confidence that the Senate will approve the report, but even there I see hope. It will be difficult for even Baucus to vote against the entire reform just based on the public option. Nelson's said he's open to voting for a bill that includes a PO. So has Snowe. I think we can get there, and I think the unions' threat to cut off all electoral support to Dems who oppose the public option is one that will have to be taken seriously, and in Baucus' case it's reinforced by some canny outreach to the Montana tribes.

                    In America, 60% of bankruptcies are because of medical bills, and 80% of those people had health insurance

                    by sullivanst on Fri Aug 21, 2009 at 09:11:46 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  You always get down to the point (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elmo

      The only point
      getting the job done

      Please Newsie 8200
      come see us more often

      "We are a Democratic blog"

    •  grade 10 for hopefulness (so tipped (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joanneleon

      and recced) but I wish I could believe half of what you're saying.

      Still, time will tell.  If the bill comes out of reconciliation with a bona fide public option starting SOON (not in 2013) and if it gets passed, you'll sure be in my clairvoyants list forever.

      Silvio Levy

      •  Well, I'm not saying that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elmo, Luetta

        a bona fide public option will happen. In fact, I think the chances are less than 50-50. My point is that people are wrong about some of the motivations and are wrong on what's happened and why. Like we may end up with a bill without a public option, but it's not going to be for the reasons that many people are claiming.

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