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View Diary: Are The Dour Democratic Projections About 2010 Justified? (334 comments)

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  •  The discussion should be (15+ / 0-)

    is the Republican party dead.  

    Be ashamed to die until you have won some victory for humanity. Horace Mann (and btw, the bike in kayakbiker is a bicycle)

    by Kayakbiker on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:01:58 AM PDT

    •  It was just two months ago (11+ / 0-)

      It's silly to extrapolate from polling this far out, and further, the number and location of opening or in-play Senate seats works in the Dems' favor.

      There's a good chance well start to see a slight uptick in employment numbers by late 2010, and, even if not, what do the Republicans have to say about it?  They opposed the stimulus en masse.   And the obstacles to further economic recovery won't be the deficit -- which is pretty much a financial non-issue given where treasuries are -- but rather further option-ARM resets or collapses in CRE, which will just show to millions of Americans why the Republicans' free-market utopia is really a dystopia.

      Get health care done, then we can talk.

      "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

      by Loge on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:06:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But where does McCain fit into this? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ray Radlein, buckhorn okie

        I thought the election was over for another 16 months.

        Democrats keep the US from becoming Third World. :)

        by The Simple Canadian on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:17:53 AM PDT

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      •  All this ignores the Dean-Obama turnout machine (10+ / 0-)

        I have worked professionally on both campaigns & I think we have better lists & a MUCH better end-game.  What will the (idiot) Villagers say if Corzine or Deeds or both win?

        Demographically, we are at the beginning of what could be a long run.  How many Kossacks know a single minority Republican?  

        NEVER underestimate the last 72 hrs. in a low-turnout election.

        It is not power that corrupts, but fear. Be fearless & show humility. (h/t)Aung San Suu Kyi

        by sturunner on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:29:10 AM PDT

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        •  Isn't that the problem? (15+ / 0-)

          If the Dems keep selling out and bumbling and "reaching out", the low turnout may well fall mostly among Dem and Indy voters. The Christianist/racist/psycho vote will always be dependable. Polls and demographics mean little or nothing at this point. The demand for change that got the Dems into power is so far being ignored and sidetracked by the "bipartisanship" obsession. The next election will be decided by whether those who believed 08 could mark a seismic political shift still see a reason to hope their expectations will be met, or even acknowledged.

          Everybody talkin' 'bout Heaven ain't goin' there -- Mahalia Jackson

          by DaveW on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:52:35 AM PDT

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          •  Yep. Low turnout b/c of disillusionment. (9+ / 0-)

            That's one of the few genuine reasons we have to be worried about federal election outcomes right now.

            People becoming disenchanted with politics in general.  Again.  Apathy because of despair.  That always works in the right wing's favor.

            "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

            by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:03:06 AM PDT

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            •  The Wealthy (4+ / 0-)

              shall always have the reason to participate to "conserve" their winnings.  Negotiation with those who wish to beat you when negotiation is not needed should be expected to make those who support you to become frustrated, disenchanted...apathetic.

              •  Yeah, no shit. :-( (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                irmaly, DaveW, buckhorn okie, sturunner

                On the other hand, I'm not ready to roll over yet.  

                Take the fork away Rahm, I'm not done.

                "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

                by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:33:34 AM PDT

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                •  When Dems act like republicans (8+ / 0-)

                  they always get fucked at the polls because the base stays home. Obama got them out in 2008. But why should they come out in 2010 for blue dogs and gutless senate Dems?

                  •  Tell them.... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Yosef 52

                    They should come out in 2010 because of the alternative: JOHN BOEHNER, Mitch MCCONNELL

                    •  Nah. Not any more. (6+ / 0-)

                      If we want them to be responsive (and responsible) to us at all, we will have to be willing to deal in sticks as well as carrots, and that means depriving them of our money and labor.  Otherwise we're just perpetuating the same system where they pay a bit of lip service to us during the campaign but essentially hold us hostage to our fears of Republicans the rest of the time.

                      "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

                      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 12:31:35 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Who's holding you hostage? (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Yosef 52, Matt Z, sturunner, littlebird33

                        So exactly whom are you talking about? Blue Dogs? Well, if you don't live in one of their districts, then you have no influence anyway. And if  you do, then do something about them. Or are you talking about the 5 Dem Senators who are screwing up the works? So, did you vote for any of them?

                        My point is this: the vast majority of serving Democrats are going along with what Obama wants. Even in some cases going further......

                        So you want to punish the whole party because of the recalcitrants?

                        In short....there is no "lip service" being paid here. What it is is that you have a diverse party, and you have to live with it UNLESS you prefer the jack-booted
                        homogenous Republicans back in power.

                        •  Nope, not the BDs, the Democratic leadership. (9+ / 0-)

                          If they believe we'll continue to walk neighborhoods, give money, make phone calls and do GOTV for Democratic candidates no matter what they believe or do, then most of them won't listen to us.  The party will throw us some crumbs now and then, take our money and our labor, and then head to the right as soon as their candidates are in office.  They believe that swing voters and right-leaning Democratic voters will punish them by withdrawing support if they don't do what those people want.  They believe we never will withdraw our support no matter what they do.  Given those two beliefs, it makes sense that they would trend right and not listen to us, unless they have a district-specific or an ideological reason to do so (like Donna Edwards, Maxine Waters, etc.)

                          No jack boots are needed, but I'm not a fool either.  In politics, you usually don't get listened to unless the people in power in the party (both appointed and elected) think you can do something significant either for them or against them.  What we do for them in our field work is significant, but as long as they think it's a sure thing, they don't have to treat it as such.  

                          We have to stop being afraid of someday. Someday, we have to stop making our political decisions based on fear of the Republicans.  Now, when the Republicans are moving between about 15% and 8% approval in the country, is a good time to stop being afraid.

                          "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

                          by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 01:10:55 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  That's becoming a tougher sell (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Just Bob

                      with every passing day that the face of congressional Democrats is people like Baucus, Nelson, and Reid. How much difference is there, really?

                      We should be able to remind them rather of people like Feingold, Boxer, and Webb, but we don't get to hear much from them lately.

                      It's not like comparing Obama unfavorably with Bush. Ben Nelson really is to the right of some Repugs.

                      The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

                      by sidnora on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 12:55:14 PM PDT

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                    •  We tried this in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

                      We sheepishly admitted that Kerry wasn't exactly all that we hoped for, but that Bush was so bad that he had to go. It wasn't enough. We need to give people something to vote FOR not against. Incidentally, this may be what saves us, because it's not like there are many popular Republicans out there.

        •  The odds of Deeds winning... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          get lower every day.  Now we're at the point where we aren't even thinking about winning, we're trying to keep it from being a blow out and losing more State Leg seats.

          "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

          by Mister Gloom on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:25:06 AM PDT

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          •  What were the odds of Deeds winning almost an (0+ / 0-)

            absolute majority in the primary?  You do relentless GOTV every election because it works.

            It is not power that corrupts, but fear. Be fearless & show humility. (h/t)Aung San Suu Kyi

            by sturunner on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 07:46:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  And that's the problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Mid term elections are local....turnout has generally favored conservatives in these cases. The Obama machine better get out minorities and young voters as they did in 2008....I'm not optimistic in that regard,but that will not keep me from doing my part.

          And don't count on other it yourself!

      •  If the Republican Party is dead, (13+ / 0-)

        why the hell do the Democrats keep "reaching out" to it? Let the dead bury the dead.

        Everybody talkin' 'bout Heaven ain't goin' there -- Mahalia Jackson

        by DaveW on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:45:08 AM PDT

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      •  It's just way too early to guess the future trend (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        metal prophet

        As stated, remember these are some of the same people that have given us the totally inaccurate and totally bogus conventional wisdom for years now. Just ask President Hillary Clinton.

        One group that will be motivated and out in forced may well be riled up Progressives. I don't think we are going away and if the Blue Dogs or Rahm Emmanuel think we are just going to meekly vote for their Democrats like a bunch of sheep; we'll he's got another think a coming.

        I see the Progressive movement working to elect, as Chairman Kos has said, "More and better Democrats."

        Sometimes the magic works.......sometimes it doesn't. Old Lodgeskins

        by Unrepentant Liberal on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:55:57 AM PDT

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      •  Are the dour projections jusfified? (0+ / 0-)

        No. Of course not. Absolutely not. And for one very good reason.

        What Republican candidate could they POSSIBLY put up who will beat Obama? There isn't one...and if one appears, who MIGHT beat an incredibly popular incumbent President, that someone will have to parrot right wing lies day and night for eighteen months straight--lies that will set them up for solid rejection by the American electorate.

        This is Republican porn. Let THEM masturbate to it, not US...

        "I feel a lot safer already."--Emil Sitka

        by DaddyO on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 04:44:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It was dead (13+ / 0-)

      but now the risen zombies are at health care town halls, waving machetes and screaming for braaaains.

      "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk." --Ian McDonald

      by Geenius at Wrok on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:08:53 AM PDT

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      •  Town halls will be history (7+ / 0-)

        In two weeks. The zombies will be reburied having left some nasty impressions behind. We will see if their dampening effect on the independents survives their disappearance from cable news.

        •  The ObamaHate™ however, is not. (6+ / 0-)

          It makes more sense to me that, if the political palor from this health care fiasco doesn't manage to lift, the fact of Obama's skin color could make Clinton's defeat in 1994 look like a day at the beach.

          It's an off-year election. And teabaggers have made themselves into an ersatz base without the Republican Party having to even breath very hard. There's nothing remotely similar---or with any staying ability---on our side.

          There's reason to worry.

          •  Let's neither bloat nor institutionalize fringe.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            loons. Their faction always was and always will be, albeit small...every President has his "haters". This fringe couldn't compare to the visceral hatred of Nixon and LBJ in numbers, authenticity, or willingness to use violence.

            I just think worrying is futile and self-defeating, but I would say that in every case.

            I bet that the vast majority of Americans, who neither have cable nor read Newsweek/Time, have ever even heard of "teabaggers".

            HR 676 - Health care reform we can believe in - national single-payer NOW.

            by kck on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:30:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The vast majority of Americans (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              kck, Matt Z, Yumn, littlebird33

              have cable (or satellite), they just choose not to watch cable "news" as part of their average five hours a day of TV viewing.

              "99% of the battles and skirmishes that we fought in Afghanistan were won by our side." ~ Marshall Akhromeyev

              by ActivistGuy on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:36:04 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You're correct and I read the data wrong. Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Matt Z

                36% of TV's - not households - have cable/satellite:

                New consumer research from Leichtman Research Group, Inc. finds that 23% of all TV sets in consumers' homes do not receive cable or Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) programming. This represents over 70 million TV sets in US households that only receive over-the-air broadcast television. Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group, Inc., said "Just 36% of all TV sets in the U.S. are currently connected to a cable or DBS set-top converter box...Half of all broadcast-only TV sets are in 15% of primary households nationwide that do not subscribe to cable, DBS, or any other type of multi-channel video service. The other half are in households that subscribe to cable or DBS. Nine percent of TV sets in cable households are broadcast-only, and 19% of TV sets in DBS households are broadcast-only.

                77% have cable or satellite and 26% have neither.

                HR 676 - Health care reform we can believe in - national single-payer NOW.

                by kck on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:10:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  That only hurts if the Dems stay home (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            savvyspy, littlebird33

            in droves.  

            I suspect Obama will get something signed in the way of healthcare reform.  It won't be a "robust public option" because the votes aren't there in Congress.    

            Will healthcare co-ops be enough to get Dems to the polls?  Or will we have a failure of memory about what it means to have the GOP in charge of Congress?    

            It is scarcely possible to conceive of the laws of motion if one looks at them from a tennis ball's point of view. (Brecht)

            by dotalbon on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:31:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Who is going to make the GOTV calls? (8+ / 0-)

              You damage your base, and you're going to get hurt in an off-year election, when the people who go to the polls are the partisans.  The health care finale is where it's at.  The line in the sand has been drawn, and it's up to the Democrats to determine whether they will stand by what they promised to the base or whether they decide they can get the insurance corporations to make those GOTV calls instead.

              Having said that, I do believe it's a bit early to seriously handicap the 2010 races.

              They don't win until we give up.

              by irmaly on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:52:50 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Some congressional Democrats (5+ / 0-)

                are in for a terrible surprise next year when state labor councils don't return their calls, and no one is willing to man their phone banks, or walk their precincts.

                The waffling and wavering on HCR and EFCA - after such a struggle to achieve majorities in both houses - will not be forgotten.  And multiply that by a factor of ten if meaningful HCR isn't achieved.

       - Kicking against the pricks since '98!

                by chuckvw on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 12:28:53 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Mandates with co-ops? (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              zeke L, irmaly, esquimaux, Just Bob

              No fricking way that motivates progressives.  Quite the opposite.

            •  The vote ARE there in Congress, it seems to me (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              zeke L, Wary, Matt Z, Yumn

              Only one committee in the Senate has the hangup.  The other four Congressional committees wo have a say in this don't seem to have nearly as much of a problem.

              I think this is very important to keep in mind, since NoNo would dearly like to sell the public on the idea that the public option is DOA, when that is clearly not the case.

            •  Stay home? Hell we're funding part of the revolt (0+ / 0-)

              A breakdown in the polls suggest 11% of the bad ratings are from Dems themselves.  But Independents may be unhappy with Obama for similar reasons. I'm furious for example, more because of Intelligence and Justice Dept. issues.  
              Other Dems have their pet peeves about his direction.
              So this time may be very different from previous mid-terms.

              I can easily believe this is more about a severe post-Rahm housecleaning and revolt against BlueDogs and other members for a variety of reasons. But all unanimous in trying to shore up opposition to Obama's
              capitulations, rather than focus on increasing their numbers as in the past..

              The Dems are wide awake - and hungry.

          •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            chrississippi, CParis, Wary

            House Democrats in conservative districts (especially in the South) will have to deal with this. Their constituents disliked Obama from the start. I remember reading an article about Charlie Melancon's district and how challengers were preparing to run against him once it looked like Obama would defeat McCain. He was ran unopposed in 2008.

      •  That's good news for John McCain (0+ / 0-)

        [sorry, had to be said]

    •  Don't Raise Taxes on MiddleClass (6+ / 0-)

      In light of these numbers, no Democrat should entertain the thought of increasing taxes on the middle-class (HHs earning less than US$ 250K a year).

      This means...

      (i) No taxation of healthcare benefits, under any circumstances.  As President Obama said during the campaign, taxing HC benefits would be the largest tax hike, ever, on the middle-class.

      (ii) No CapAndTrade.  Our working and middle-class families are already under enough pressure.  They don't need to deal with government-imposed tax hikes on energy use.

      (iii) No national sales tax.  That Ezekiel Emmanuel would even propose this shows just how tone-deaf he is.   You want to see the GOP take all branches of government for the next 25 years, propose a national sales tax.

      Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project.

      by PatriciaVa on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:14:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  CapAndTrade is a way to shift pollution to Africa (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        or anywhere else where they need money and don't care about pollution...

        Democrats keep the US from becoming Third World. :)

        by The Simple Canadian on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:19:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Households earning less than $250K/year (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        zeke L, kaolin

        are not middle class. I'd say the place where middle class breaks away is about $167K/yr, the "top 5%".

        Household income distribution
        Bottom 10%	Bottom 20%	Bottom 25%	Middle 33%	
        $0 to $10,500	$0 to $18,500	$0 to $22,500	$30,000 to $62,500
        Middle 20%	      Top 25%		Top 20% 	
        $35,000 to $55,000    $77,500 ^ 	$92,000 ^
        Top 5%		Top 1.5%	Top 1%	
        $167,000 ^	$250,000 ^	$350,000 ^

        Some might argue the middle class ends even as low as the top 20%, at $92K but I think that's too low. Raising the taxes very slightly on people making $150K/yr or more would not be a problem. As it is, the current proposal is a $900 tax increase on people making $350K/yr. That's less than a third of one percent increase.

      •  I agree with one and three (0+ / 0-)

        We need cap-and-trade, it's essential to our massive environmental crisis. There's really no other option. But, if there's a national sales tax, there should be rioting in the streets, because a national sales tax is DEEPLY regressive. It's an idea that is to the right of what most REPUBLICANS believe in. And I agree that healthcare benefits should NOT be taxed. This would also be regressive.

    •  Republicans are zombies now (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      porsupah, CParis, moosely2006, Shahryar

      But what the Dems don't seem to understand -- esp Obama -- is that winning the election wasn't winning the game.  

      He's at bat, and he's about to strike out.

      Health care bait and switch will show the Dems as hopeless beyond repair.

      Pushing through Medicare for All will ensure Democratic majorities for all our lifetimes.

      But the corporate overlords can't have that now, can they?  Nobody wants anybody to get the idea that government could be of, by, and for people, fer gawdsake.

      American democracy broke /renewed my heart -- and I /still don't have health care.

      by LindaR on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:44:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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