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View Diary: Are The Dour Democratic Projections About 2010 Justified? (334 comments)

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  •  It was just two months ago (11+ / 0-)

    It's silly to extrapolate from polling this far out, and further, the number and location of opening or in-play Senate seats works in the Dems' favor.

    There's a good chance well start to see a slight uptick in employment numbers by late 2010, and, even if not, what do the Republicans have to say about it?  They opposed the stimulus en masse.   And the obstacles to further economic recovery won't be the deficit -- which is pretty much a financial non-issue given where treasuries are -- but rather further option-ARM resets or collapses in CRE, which will just show to millions of Americans why the Republicans' free-market utopia is really a dystopia.

    Get health care done, then we can talk.

    "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

    by Loge on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:06:44 AM PDT

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    •  But where does McCain fit into this? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ray Radlein, buckhorn okie

      I thought the election was over for another 16 months.

      Democrats keep the US from becoming Third World. :)

      by The Simple Canadian on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:17:53 AM PDT

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    •  All this ignores the Dean-Obama turnout machine (10+ / 0-)

      I have worked professionally on both campaigns & I think we have better lists & a MUCH better end-game.  What will the (idiot) Villagers say if Corzine or Deeds or both win?

      Demographically, we are at the beginning of what could be a long run.  How many Kossacks know a single minority Republican?  

      NEVER underestimate the last 72 hrs. in a low-turnout election.

      It is not power that corrupts, but fear. Be fearless & show humility. (h/t)Aung San Suu Kyi

      by sturunner on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:29:10 AM PDT

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      •  Isn't that the problem? (15+ / 0-)

        If the Dems keep selling out and bumbling and "reaching out", the low turnout may well fall mostly among Dem and Indy voters. The Christianist/racist/psycho vote will always be dependable. Polls and demographics mean little or nothing at this point. The demand for change that got the Dems into power is so far being ignored and sidetracked by the "bipartisanship" obsession. The next election will be decided by whether those who believed 08 could mark a seismic political shift still see a reason to hope their expectations will be met, or even acknowledged.

        Everybody talkin' 'bout Heaven ain't goin' there -- Mahalia Jackson

        by DaveW on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:52:35 AM PDT

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        •  Yep. Low turnout b/c of disillusionment. (9+ / 0-)

          That's one of the few genuine reasons we have to be worried about federal election outcomes right now.

          People becoming disenchanted with politics in general.  Again.  Apathy because of despair.  That always works in the right wing's favor.

          "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

          by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:03:06 AM PDT

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          •  The Wealthy (4+ / 0-)

            shall always have the reason to participate to "conserve" their winnings.  Negotiation with those who wish to beat you when negotiation is not needed should be expected to make those who support you to become frustrated, disenchanted...apathetic.

            •  Yeah, no shit. :-( (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              irmaly, DaveW, buckhorn okie, sturunner

              On the other hand, I'm not ready to roll over yet.  

              Take the fork away Rahm, I'm not done.

              "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

              by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:33:34 AM PDT

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              •  When Dems act like republicans (8+ / 0-)

                they always get fucked at the polls because the base stays home. Obama got them out in 2008. But why should they come out in 2010 for blue dogs and gutless senate Dems?

                •  Tell them.... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Yosef 52

                  They should come out in 2010 because of the alternative: JOHN BOEHNER, Mitch MCCONNELL

                  •  Nah. Not any more. (6+ / 0-)

                    If we want them to be responsive (and responsible) to us at all, we will have to be willing to deal in sticks as well as carrots, and that means depriving them of our money and labor.  Otherwise we're just perpetuating the same system where they pay a bit of lip service to us during the campaign but essentially hold us hostage to our fears of Republicans the rest of the time.

                    "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

                    by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 12:31:35 PM PDT

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                    •  Who's holding you hostage? (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Yosef 52, Matt Z, sturunner, littlebird33

                      So exactly whom are you talking about? Blue Dogs? Well, if you don't live in one of their districts, then you have no influence anyway. And if  you do, then do something about them. Or are you talking about the 5 Dem Senators who are screwing up the works? So, did you vote for any of them?

                      My point is this: the vast majority of serving Democrats are going along with what Obama wants. Even in some cases going further......

                      So you want to punish the whole party because of the recalcitrants?

                      In short....there is no "lip service" being paid here. What it is is that you have a diverse party, and you have to live with it UNLESS you prefer the jack-booted
                      homogenous Republicans back in power.

                      •  Nope, not the BDs, the Democratic leadership. (9+ / 0-)

                        If they believe we'll continue to walk neighborhoods, give money, make phone calls and do GOTV for Democratic candidates no matter what they believe or do, then most of them won't listen to us.  The party will throw us some crumbs now and then, take our money and our labor, and then head to the right as soon as their candidates are in office.  They believe that swing voters and right-leaning Democratic voters will punish them by withdrawing support if they don't do what those people want.  They believe we never will withdraw our support no matter what they do.  Given those two beliefs, it makes sense that they would trend right and not listen to us, unless they have a district-specific or an ideological reason to do so (like Donna Edwards, Maxine Waters, etc.)

                        No jack boots are needed, but I'm not a fool either.  In politics, you usually don't get listened to unless the people in power in the party (both appointed and elected) think you can do something significant either for them or against them.  What we do for them in our field work is significant, but as long as they think it's a sure thing, they don't have to treat it as such.  

                        We have to stop being afraid of someday. Someday, we have to stop making our political decisions based on fear of the Republicans.  Now, when the Republicans are moving between about 15% and 8% approval in the country, is a good time to stop being afraid.

                        "This is our time. We must be relentless. Even if (or when) Obama seems like he doesn't have our back...we know what we believe in." philipmerrill

                        by SouthernLiberalinMD on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 01:10:55 PM PDT

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                  •  That's becoming a tougher sell (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Just Bob

                    with every passing day that the face of congressional Democrats is people like Baucus, Nelson, and Reid. How much difference is there, really?

                    We should be able to remind them rather of people like Feingold, Boxer, and Webb, but we don't get to hear much from them lately.

                    It's not like comparing Obama unfavorably with Bush. Ben Nelson really is to the right of some Repugs.

                    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

                    by sidnora on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 12:55:14 PM PDT

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                  •  We tried this in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

                    We sheepishly admitted that Kerry wasn't exactly all that we hoped for, but that Bush was so bad that he had to go. It wasn't enough. We need to give people something to vote FOR not against. Incidentally, this may be what saves us, because it's not like there are many popular Republicans out there.

      •  The odds of Deeds winning... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        greatdarkspot

        get lower every day.  Now we're at the point where we aren't even thinking about winning, we're trying to keep it from being a blow out and losing more State Leg seats.

        "Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center." - Kurt Vonnegut

        by Mister Gloom on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:25:06 AM PDT

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        •  What were the odds of Deeds winning almost an (0+ / 0-)

          absolute majority in the primary?  You do relentless GOTV every election because it works.

          It is not power that corrupts, but fear. Be fearless & show humility. (h/t)Aung San Suu Kyi

          by sturunner on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 07:46:12 PM PDT

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      •  And that's the problem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        littlebird33

        Mid term elections are local....turnout has generally favored conservatives in these cases. The Obama machine better get out minorities and young voters as they did in 2008....I'm not optimistic in that regard,but that will not keep me from doing my part.

        And don't count on other people....do it yourself!

    •  If the Republican Party is dead, (13+ / 0-)

      why the hell do the Democrats keep "reaching out" to it? Let the dead bury the dead.

      Everybody talkin' 'bout Heaven ain't goin' there -- Mahalia Jackson

      by DaveW on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:45:08 AM PDT

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    •  It's just way too early to guess the future trend (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      metal prophet

      As stated, remember these are some of the same people that have given us the totally inaccurate and totally bogus conventional wisdom for years now. Just ask President Hillary Clinton.

      One group that will be motivated and out in forced may well be riled up Progressives. I don't think we are going away and if the Blue Dogs or Rahm Emmanuel think we are just going to meekly vote for their Democrats like a bunch of sheep; we'll he's got another think a coming.

      I see the Progressive movement working to elect, as Chairman Kos has said, "More and better Democrats."

      Sometimes the magic works.......sometimes it doesn't. Old Lodgeskins

      by Unrepentant Liberal on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:55:57 AM PDT

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    •  Are the dour projections jusfified? (0+ / 0-)

      No. Of course not. Absolutely not. And for one very good reason.

      What Republican candidate could they POSSIBLY put up who will beat Obama? There isn't one...and if one appears, who MIGHT beat an incredibly popular incumbent President, that someone will have to parrot right wing lies day and night for eighteen months straight--lies that will set them up for solid rejection by the American electorate.

      This is Republican porn. Let THEM masturbate to it, not US...

      "I feel a lot safer already."--Emil Sitka

      by DaddyO on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 04:44:28 PM PDT

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