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View Diary: Are The Dour Democratic Projections About 2010 Justified? (334 comments)

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  •  The ObamaHate™ however, is not. (6+ / 0-)

    It makes more sense to me that, if the political palor from this health care fiasco doesn't manage to lift, the fact of Obama's skin color could make Clinton's defeat in 1994 look like a day at the beach.

    It's an off-year election. And teabaggers have made themselves into an ersatz base without the Republican Party having to even breath very hard. There's nothing remotely similar---or with any staying ability---on our side.

    There's reason to worry.

    •  Let's neither bloat nor institutionalize fringe.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      loons. Their faction always was and always will be, albeit small...every President has his "haters". This fringe couldn't compare to the visceral hatred of Nixon and LBJ in numbers, authenticity, or willingness to use violence.

      I just think worrying is futile and self-defeating, but I would say that in every case.

      I bet that the vast majority of Americans, who neither have cable nor read Newsweek/Time, have ever even heard of "teabaggers".

      HR 676 - Health care reform we can believe in - national single-payer NOW.

      by kck on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:30:54 AM PDT

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      •  The vast majority of Americans (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kck, Matt Z, Yumn, littlebird33

        have cable (or satellite), they just choose not to watch cable "news" as part of their average five hours a day of TV viewing.

        "99% of the battles and skirmishes that we fought in Afghanistan were won by our side." ~ Marshall Akhromeyev

        by ActivistGuy on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:36:04 AM PDT

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        •  You're correct and I read the data wrong. Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z

          36% of TV's - not households - have cable/satellite:

          New consumer research from Leichtman Research Group, Inc. finds that 23% of all TV sets in consumers' homes do not receive cable or Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) programming. This represents over 70 million TV sets in US households that only receive over-the-air broadcast television. Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group, Inc., said "Just 36% of all TV sets in the U.S. are currently connected to a cable or DBS set-top converter box...Half of all broadcast-only TV sets are in 15% of primary households nationwide that do not subscribe to cable, DBS, or any other type of multi-channel video service. The other half are in households that subscribe to cable or DBS. Nine percent of TV sets in cable households are broadcast-only, and 19% of TV sets in DBS households are broadcast-only.

          77% have cable or satellite and 26% have neither.

          HR 676 - Health care reform we can believe in - national single-payer NOW.

          by kck on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 11:10:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That only hurts if the Dems stay home (2+ / 0-)
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      savvyspy, littlebird33

      in droves.  

      I suspect Obama will get something signed in the way of healthcare reform.  It won't be a "robust public option" because the votes aren't there in Congress.    

      Will healthcare co-ops be enough to get Dems to the polls?  Or will we have a failure of memory about what it means to have the GOP in charge of Congress?    

      It is scarcely possible to conceive of the laws of motion if one looks at them from a tennis ball's point of view. (Brecht)

      by dotalbon on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:31:26 AM PDT

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      •  Who is going to make the GOTV calls? (8+ / 0-)

        You damage your base, and you're going to get hurt in an off-year election, when the people who go to the polls are the partisans.  The health care finale is where it's at.  The line in the sand has been drawn, and it's up to the Democrats to determine whether they will stand by what they promised to the base or whether they decide they can get the insurance corporations to make those GOTV calls instead.

        Having said that, I do believe it's a bit early to seriously handicap the 2010 races.

        They don't win until we give up.

        by irmaly on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:52:50 AM PDT

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        •  Some congressional Democrats (5+ / 0-)

          are in for a terrible surprise next year when state labor councils don't return their calls, and no one is willing to man their phone banks, or walk their precincts.

          The waffling and wavering on HCR and EFCA - after such a struggle to achieve majorities in both houses - will not be forgotten.  And multiply that by a factor of ten if meaningful HCR isn't achieved.

 - Kicking against the pricks since '98!

          by chuckvw on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 12:28:53 PM PDT

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      •  Mandates with co-ops? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        zeke L, irmaly, esquimaux, Just Bob

        No fricking way that motivates progressives.  Quite the opposite.

      •  The vote ARE there in Congress, it seems to me (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        zeke L, Wary, Matt Z, Yumn

        Only one committee in the Senate has the hangup.  The other four Congressional committees wo have a say in this don't seem to have nearly as much of a problem.

        I think this is very important to keep in mind, since NoNo would dearly like to sell the public on the idea that the public option is DOA, when that is clearly not the case.

      •  Stay home? Hell we're funding part of the revolt (0+ / 0-)

        A breakdown in the polls suggest 11% of the bad ratings are from Dems themselves.  But Independents may be unhappy with Obama for similar reasons. I'm furious for example, more because of Intelligence and Justice Dept. issues.  
        Other Dems have their pet peeves about his direction.
        So this time may be very different from previous mid-terms.

        I can easily believe this is more about a severe post-Rahm housecleaning and revolt against BlueDogs and other members for a variety of reasons. But all unanimous in trying to shore up opposition to Obama's
        capitulations, rather than focus on increasing their numbers as in the past..

        The Dems are wide awake - and hungry.

    •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
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      chrississippi, CParis, Wary

      House Democrats in conservative districts (especially in the South) will have to deal with this. Their constituents disliked Obama from the start. I remember reading an article about Charlie Melancon's district and how challengers were preparing to run against him once it looked like Obama would defeat McCain. He was ran unopposed in 2008.

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