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View Diary: Are The Dour Democratic Projections About 2010 Justified? (334 comments)

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  •  I disagree about the "early 2010" (2+ / 0-)
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    Litvak36, Matt Z

    I think more important is the state of the economy in the Summer 2010 & Fall of 2010.  

    If the GOP is railing about how bad the economy is in February 2010 but by September 2010 jobs are being created than what they are saying will fall on deaf ears.

    I think where the economy is in Fall 2010 is FAR MORE IMPORTANT on the election than the state of the economy in early 2010.

    Tell me if the Democrats passed health care reform and what the economy looks like on September 2010 and I will tell just how the mid-term elections are looking for the Democrats.

    Obama 7/09: "Don't bet against us" (unless the Dems screw it up).

    by Drdemocrat on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:48:54 AM PDT

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    •  They are each important, for (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      different reasons.

      The summer and fall economy will help shape turnout and vote choice, which is obviously crucial.  But congressional scholars argue, with a wealth of data to back them up, that the early part of the year is even more important because it sets the playing field.  Since a vast majority of seats are safe no matter what, who decides to retire, and where, is extremely important for setting the boundaries of our potential gains or losses.

      But it's not either/or.  Both are important, and my original post was inaccurate to the extent that I implied that the summer/fall period wouldn't matter at all.

      I hated Lou Dobbs before it was cool.

      by cardinal on Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 10:55:13 AM PDT

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