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  •  Two more observations... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Leftleaner, scotths, Larsstephens

    First, the most recent polling - especially the Gallup tracker that gives Obama a +7 favorability rating - matches the election results closely.  Gallup had Obama up 50-43.  Last fall's vote was 53-46, and very few of those 46% will support the president now.

    Second, in comparing the Research 2000 regional favorability ratings as posted on Kos to the election results, it is odd that Obama is doing better now than he did in the election in three out of four regions.  Any guesses as to which one is the exception?

    NORTHEAST

    Popular Vote:  Obama 16,955,765 (59.44%), McCain 11,163,386 (39.14%), Total 28,524,587.  Electoral Vote:  Obama 117, McCain 5.

    Research 2000:  81% Favorable, 13% Unfavorable.

    MIDWEST

    Popular Vote:  Obama 17,790,208 (52.98%), McCain 15,253,735 (45.43%), Total 33,576,392.  Electoral Vote:  Obama 97, McCain 34.

    Research 2000:  62% Favorable, 33% Unfavorable.

    WEST

    Popular Vote:  Obama 15,720,655 (55.94%), McCain 11,765,120 (41.86%), Total 28,104,554.  Electoral Vote:  Obama 96, McCain 28.

    Research 2000:  60% Favorable, 36% Unfavorable.

    SOUTH

    Popular Vote:  Obama 19,032,324 (46.14%), 21,767,161 (52.77%), Total 41,251,078.  Electoral Vote:  Obama 55, McCain 106.

    Research 2000:  27% Favorable, 68% Unfavorable.

    TOTAL

    Popular Vote:  Obama 69,498,952 (52.87%), 59,949,402 (45.60%), Total 131,456,611.  Electoral Vote:  Obama 365, McCain 173.

    Research 2000:  55% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable.

    So, if we compare the election results to the current favorability polls - which are obviously not the same thing, but the election was a much a referendum on Obama as anything else - Obama has gone from +7 to +15 nationally, +20 to +68 in the Northeast, +8 to +29 in the Midwest, +14 to +24 in the West, and - 7 to -41 in the South.  Somehow, a lot of McCain voters in the Northeast now give Obama a favorable grade, as do a smaller number of McCain voters in the Midwest and West.  But in the South, the opposite is true; large numbers of Obama voters seem to have turned against him.

    As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

    by KTinOhio on Fri Aug 28, 2009 at 10:00:09 PM PDT

    •  the realignment is finally complete.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      some other george

      So, after the WW 2 we had 3 parties really... Northern Democrats, Southern Democrats and Republicans.

      The 1960's drove a wedge between the 2 parts of the Remocratic party.

      It looks to me as if the moderate to liberal Northern Republicans and Northern Democrats have merged together to form the new Democratic party with more conservative members of both parties winding up in the tiny Republican party.The old line between the parties in the north was largely between Anglo-saxons and the ethnic immigrants. Politicians like Kennedy helped bring the anglo-saxons over to the Democrats especially as the south became more and more republican. Meanwhile the old southern Democratic party became the new Republican party.

      I think Obama as well as the counterattack to Obama since the election has been strong enough to finish the sorting process and pull people on to one side or the other.

      It is interesting that as the realignment occurred the "harder" of the 2 methods happened in which 2 of the 3 parties had to change alignments. (ie Southern Democrats to the republicans, northern Republicans to the Democrats). One could imagine a scenario in which the Northern Democrats moved into the Republican party and that party became the northern liberal party.

      Historical what if... What if Henry Cabot Lodge jr. had defeated John F. Kennedy in the 1952 senate election in Massachusetts? Kennedy likely doesn't run for President, but Lodge does (as opposed to being Nixon's running mate). Lodge wins and presides over the civil rights movement signing important legislation. The south shuns the Republican party and Barry Goldwater runs as a Democrat with the support of Reagan who remains in the Democratic party.

      In the late 60's the "silent majority" in the midlands swings to the Democratic party and northern liberal Democrats, disenchanted with the increasing conservatism jump ship to join the liberal to moderate Republicans. In 1980 the Democrat Ronald Reagan wins in a landslide and the Republicans are reduced to significance in the cities and the northern corners of the country. The sagebrush rebellion doesn't need to occur as the regions are already associated with the now conservative democratic party. There is far less split ticket voting as only 1/3 of the electorate changes their alliance for President rather than 2/3rds.

      Bill Clinton becomes the first Republican to win in quite a while, but has a difficult time with the conservative Democrats in congress. The election of 1994 in which split ticket voters in the south aligned their congressional vote with their Presidential vote doesn't happen as they are already aligned. Clinton pushes through a modest agenda and makes some progress on health care reform but not as much as he would like.

      In 2008 a young Republican senator from Illinois brings new life to the Republican party reigniting the old coalition that has been in tatters since the new deal. He receives the support of people connected with older great Republican presidents such as Dwight Eisenhower's granddaughter as well as prominent Republicans who joined the party as a result of the civil right era such as the Kennedy brothers. Obama wins all of Lincoln's states for the first time since Eisenhower and Hoover before him and even manages to take Democratic strong holds such a Virginia and North Carolina the latter for only the 2nd time in history. Vermont continues its streak voting for the Republican party in every election since the founding of the party in 1856.

      So, if we compare the election results to the current favorability polls - which are obviously not the same thing, but the election was a much a referendum on Obama as anything else - Obama has gone from +7 to +15 nationally, +20 to +68 in the Northeast, +8 to +29 in the Midwest, +14 to +24 in the West, and - 7 to -41 in the South.  Somehow, a lot of McCain voters in the Northeast now give Obama a favorable grade, as do a smaller number of McCain voters in the Midwest and West.  But in the South, the opposite is true; large numbers of Obama voters seem to have turned against him.

    •  thanks so much ! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scotths

      for your analysis and crunching the numbers.  I am making your comment a part of the diary, as I think it's very relevant to the discussion here ...

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