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View Diary: Reid Chooses A Place On The Public Option Continuum (20 comments)

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  •  The story is just going to get bigger (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RenMin, athensga

    Harry Reid is in real trouble back here at home. I am hoping that this drives him to seriously embrace the best reform ideas possible from here on out. As much as he has frustrated me, I'd rather we not lose the seat to a Republican who will make John Ensign look like Lincoln Chafee.

    Danny Tarkanian. Little fish. I mean total 'okay, better than letting the seat go uncontested' sacrificial lamb type of candidate. Famous for being related to a UNLV basketball coaching legend, playing college ball, running basketball camps, and losing an election and suing his Democratic opponent for libel afterwards. Sue Lowden. Very small time state GOPer. Like Ted Kennedy or John Kerry having to be afraid of losing to a Jane Swift or Kerry Healey type candidate in their primes.

    These are the type of people you only run because you don't want to have an uncontested seat.

    Reid is losing to both of them in local polling.

    That's bugfucknuts crazy.

    The Nevada state GOP is a mess. It makes the Massachusetts GOP of the 1980's look terrifying. All of the big GOP names are tainted by recent losses or by connections to incompetent GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons. Even former rep. Jon Porter, weaktea that he is, but a giant amongst the debris of the Nevada state GOP, is out.

    The people who are being matched up against Reid are the bottom of the "who's left?" barrel. The local Movement Conservative big guns, like Sheldon Adelson, have either lost billions in the financial and economic implosion we have been gutting our way through, or, like Steve Wynn, want the clout of the most powerful man in the Senate being from Nevada and won't help the GOP unseat him.  

    So, Harry Reid is facing underfunded minnows fronted by a crippled and demoralized local GOP that is hurting for money and focus. For now.

    He should be blowing the field away.

    And instead he is trailing them. The national GOP is going to be all over this Senate race if they think they can Tommy Dash another Senate Leader. He has to know that.

    If you told me that even the Yucca Flats argument (if I go, they will start shipping in the nuclear waste in a year or two) wouldn't even be working anymore six months to a a year ago I would have said you were crazy.

    Now, Harry Reid might need a high turn-out energized Democratic base election to keep his job, and to keep a Democrat in the seat. The Nevada Democratic Party is a Reid machine. There is no primarying him because to go after him here is the death penalty for any big named pol in the party, a ticket to being exiled from state Democratic politics. Harry is it.  

    If healthcare reform fails? Or a completely mediocre 'just getting something passed we can claim as a win' bill?

    He's probably in the deepest shit of his political career now, and likely screwed at that point. He needs a big win on healthcare reform, and he needs the kind of bill that will make the base turn out for him.  

    I think as we move towards the Fall and Winter, Harry Reid is either going to have to be more open to the idea of the Democrats going it alone, or face the prospect that he could lose his job.

    He needs a big win.

    Otherwise don't be surprised if Dick Durban is the Senate Leader.

    And, although I don't care for Harry Reid very much as a Senate leader, you can't imagine how ugly the prospect of a Danny Tarkanian or a Sue Lowden being a US Senator would be if you lived here. That's Harriet Miers territory. Nothing good is going to come from that.

    To go from the Senate Leader to somebody (hopefully) who might not even be in the Senate in six years is going to be a hard row of corn to sow. But if Harry loses, its really his own fault and he has nobody else to blame for it.

    100% Concern Troll Proof

    by LeftHandedMan on Sat Aug 29, 2009 at 01:12:26 PM PDT

    •  If Harry had a shred of decency -- (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RenMin

      or, for that matter, common sense -- he'd withdraw from his own re-election campaign now.  All he's good for is bringing the Democratic Party down; that is, in fact, all he's done lo these past several years.

      •  Well, the problem is: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RenMin

        If Harry Reid were to do that, his most likely replacement on the ballot would be... his son Rory!

        The state party is a Reid Machine. His people pretty much are the powers that be.

        The kid is either running for Governor, or for John Ensign's seat in a few years as of now.

        If the elder Reid went, I honestly believe that the younger Reid steps in rather than, say, Dina Titus risking her House seat (which we spent years and years trying to take away from reliable wingnut vote Jon Porter) to take a run at the unexpectedly open seat. (From what I understand, she really, really wants to be Governor someday quite badly and she isn't going to lose that House seat as long as she wants to keep it.)

        Rory Reid is pretty much a younger, shorter, and less confrontational version of his old man.

        I wish I could say it weren't so.

        I would even go so far as to say that if Harry Reid loses to a Republican, I think the party plan would be for his son to be Governor for a full term, run for re-election, and then go after the Republican who beat his dad in six years.

        There is nothing more frustrating than being a non-Reid fan in Nevada Democratic Politics. Every time you take a step, another board seems to come up and smack you in the face.

        Apparently, it was this way back during the days of Senator McCarren. He was the party, and the party was an extension of him. Nevada has a long history of machine politics.

        100% Concern Troll Proof

        by LeftHandedMan on Sat Aug 29, 2009 at 01:31:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Makes you wonder why (0+ / 0-)

      Heller and Porter have passed on this race. I'd like to see Gibbons polled against Reid. It would probably be a dead heat. If Harry's numbers haven't improved by next spring, I don't see how he can continue his re-election campaign. It would be giving away a senate seat.

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