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View Diary: Are All Likely Voters Republicans? (266 comments)

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  •  Super unscientific comment but (5+ / 0-)

    I feel in my gut that most Americans just aren't going to vote Republican. Most people just seem to know that despite all their noise and nonsense and handwaving, the Republicans are a disaster for this country.

    I guess I'm cautiously optimistic. People are scared and they know deep down the Republicans will drag us to ruin.

    •  Drag us to ruin vs. making decisions to fix stuff (1+ / 0-)
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      If Democrats can't patch up the brand to be seen as the party doing things pragmatically AND ideologically smart, Americans will take their chances with Republicans.

      It's been this way for basically 30 years.

      •  I agree, but we gotta face some reality here... (0+ / 0-)

        Bush left us in a cosmically effed up position. It is a 10 year project just to dig out from his utter cataclysm.

        •  No argument there . . . (1+ / 0-)
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          but seeing an election decided by voters "facing reality" is probably a bit beyond hopeful (at least in this country).

          I think the economy is still going to be in the shitter for most people in 2010; tensions and emotions will be running high, and ObamaHaters will be force to be reckoned with in an off-year election.

      •  democratic base enthusiasm (0+ / 0-)

        If the Democrats in the Senate cannot pass major health care reform, then it is obvious it makes no differenc at this time if we have 57 seats instead of 60.  In that case, I believe the netroots should urge voters in certain states that have the typical traitor or super weak Democratic Senators to not support the incumbent and let the Republican win.  This would send a message to the other weak Dems that they should listen to their base rather than the Beltway pundits.

        I suggest picking out certain Senators, no more than three for this treatment.  Further, I believe this effort should be publicized so that there is no misinterpreting such Democratic losses.  Still further, the netroots should at the same time support the rest of the Senators and urge a strong turnout for the rest of the Democratic Senators up for election.

        Right now, I believe the netroots should hold Harry Reid responsible for the health care legislation.  If it fails in the Senate or because of the Senate, then I submit Harry Reid should be on the do not support and let the Republican win list.

    •  If we lose big in 2010... (5+ / 0-)

      it won't be because of some great movement towards the GOP, it will be because those that voted Democratic in 2008 don't bother to show up to the polls for whatever reason.

      Part of it is naivete.  We saw HUGE involvement on college campuses.  I can attest to what happened at UCLA, with dozens roadtripping each weekend to Nevada to GOTV for Obama.  After the election, we couldn't even get some of the people that made those roadtrips to show up to the weekly Bruin Democrats meetings.  Some simply "checked out" once Obama won, and they won't bother voting again until he's on the ballot in 2012.  Unless there's an intense push to get them, they will not vote in 2010, not because they don't like Obama or the Democrats, but simply because they're not habitual voters, and they have an "Obama's president, what more do you want from me?" attitude.

      Also, just look at some of the diaries written here on DailyKos.  The enthusiasm gap the pollsters are measuring is not imaginary.  I mean, we just had one yesterday where the person wanted to leave the U.S., and that of a volunteer who will not heed calls from Obama himself to help on health care reform.

      And of course, it's a midterm election, and several groups that tend to vote Democratic are also the least reliable when it comes to voting in midterm elections.  Our goal now should be working on countering these factors.  And yes, I do believe that passing real health care reform will go a long way in narrowing that enthusiasm gap.

      •  If we lose in 2010 (3+ / 1-)
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        cdreid, ek hornbeck, Xerxes
        Hidden by:
        Miss Blue

        You sound like a dam Democratic ditto head. All of us who worked for Obama thought we were electing a REAL Democrat and somebody who would bring "change you could believe in". Well the reality, if you'd get your dam head out of the sand, is that this is a slightly more center clone of the last Administration. It isn't quite as unbelievable, but given the campaign promises, transparency, take on greedy corporations and wall street, change terrorism policies, uphold the rule of law, fight for universal health care, etc., ad nauseum, there's not a single aspect of this Administration that could be classified as being to the left of the Blue Dogs. I wouldn't vote for this fraud again if he was running against Palin. I withdraw. I quit. If and when I vote again it will be for either a Green Party or a Progressive Party or maybe someone gets smart and starts a Social Democratic Party and runs Bernie Sanders for President and Weiner for VP.

        •  Obama is a "more center clone"? (1+ / 0-)
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          Wolf Of Aquarius

          You are too stupid to be posting.

          Silence is the enemy - Green Day 4330+ dead - Bring them home

          by Miss Blue on Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 04:03:01 PM PDT

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        •  One more thing.... (1+ / 0-)
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          Wolf Of Aquarius

          This is a Democratic blog.  

          You want to tout third Party, go elsewhere.

          Now you get the egg.

          Silence is the enemy - Green Day 4330+ dead - Bring them home

          by Miss Blue on Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 04:04:08 PM PDT

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          •  n/t (3+ / 0-)
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            cdreid, pHunbalanced, MixedContent

            Geeze, talk about abusing the negative rating system. It annoys me to see people do that to other posters just because they disagree with them, strikes me as very Republican-esque.

          •  Sorry, sorry (3+ / 0-)
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            cdreid, pHunbalanced, MixedContent

            Didn't know this was a DLC-only blog.  I got it all backwards!  Silly silly me.  It's PARTY before COUNTRY... did I get it right this time?

            Competitive sport has made America stupid.

          •  Semi-OT: from The Exegesis of Troll-Rating (3+ / 0-)
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            cdreid, pHunbalanced, MixedContent

            (emphasis mine)

            To Troll Rate something has exactly one meaning. When you Troll Rate something, as a trusted user, you are stating that the comment should be made invisible to all site users. You're saying that the comment is so bad -- so disruptive or damaging to the community -- that it isn't worth even a debate, but should be deleted from the discussion as being simply inflammatory, simply off-topic, or simply a lie. Remember that, because that is the only use of the troll rating. It is an editorial vote to delete a comment from the conversation. Conversely, there is one particular reason troll ratings should never be used: to express disagreement with a poster's opinion.

            Oh, and I couldn't find any place in the FAQ or About dKos where any party support was laid down.

            Clearly you are on the side of the corporatists.  Enjoy your football game.

            •  Whoops, my mistake (1+ / 0-)
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              It sure is a Democratic blog.  Still I don't see that as a justification for troll-rating.  Back to your football game.

            •  Actually... (1+ / 0-)
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              it is pretty clear from the FAQ section, referencing a diary Markos wrote back in 2004.

              This is a Democratic blog, a partisan blog. One that recognizes that Democrats run from left to right on the ideological spectrum, and yet we're all still in this fight together.

              We happily embrace centrists like NDN's Simon Rosenberg and Howard Dean, conservatives like Martin Frost and Brad Carson, and liberals like John Kerry and Barack Obama.

              Liberal? Yeah, we're around here and we're proud. But it's not a liberal blog. It's a Democratic blog with one goal in mind: electoral victory.

              And since we haven't gotten any of that from the current crew, we're one more thing: a reform blog.

              The battle for the party is not an ideological battle. It's one between establishment and anti-establishment factions. And as I've said a million times, the status quo is untenable.

              But it has nothing to do with ideology, and those who continue painting the battle in those colors is nothing more than a dishonest shill in the best tradition of Karl Rove and gang.

              •  More Democrats (1+ / 0-)
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                then better Democrats. One of Markos' favorite sayings. Everyone knows what that's shorthand for. More freaking liberal Democrats! I remember the aforementioned statement from Markos very clearly. It came off as well, quite political of him. But does anyone really believe that bullshit? How long are we going to carry on with this fiction? The big tent doesn't work. It never has worked, and if more people knew their Democratic Party history they would recognize this salient fact-the entire legacy of the Democratic Party is not the byproduct of the Big Tent, it was done in spite of the Big Tent!

                Minimum wage, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, collective bargaining, TVA, rural electrification, water reclamation, financial regulation, Fannie and Freddie (pre-deregulation), FHA, Pell Grants and student loans, Food Stamps, Aid to Dependent Children, federalization of primary and secondary education funding, fuel efficiency standards, truth-in-lending, Civil Rights, Voting Rights, Open Housing, highway safety regs, Clean Water, NEPA, Wilderness Act, Wild and Scenic Rivers, G.I. Bill, almost the entire infrastructure of our parks and national forests, HUD, etc. What do they all have in common? They became a reality ONLY because there were enough progressives and liberals in Congress for about 9-short years (first 5 years of the New Deal and 4-years of the Great Society) to defeat the Big Tent paralysis that has been the status quo in the Democratic Party since Carter's term.  

                Instead of focusing on pollster speak, trying to find statistical reasons why the polls might not be accurate, why don't we acknowledge the very real fact that there are some very displeased Democratic partisans who are fed up with what's going on. These polls reflect a growing disenchantment with the president and his minions in Congress. And please don't tell us that health care is fraught with difficulty and it takes time. That is nonsense. The Johnson administration managed to get through Congress not one or two controversial measures, but a whole litany of them in quick succession. Of course the party isn't anywhere near as coherent know as it was then, and everyone knows it's a problem that needs to be addressed. Unfortunately, singing that we're the party of John Kerry AND Brad Carson isn't the solution, it is the problem.

              •  If we lose in 2010 (0+ / 0-)

                Wow, I should post more like the above(unfortunately I don't check my old posts very often). It seems to have caused fireworks. Here's something to chew on, Green Party, Green Party, Green Party, etc. Though I've never before voted for the Green Party nor paid all that much attention to it, given the vitriolic response from the Party loyalists, who obviously put party before policy, (sort of like the Repugs)I wonder how far that would go. Party before country? If the Democratic Party supports continued presence in Iraq and supports increasing presence in Afghanistan,(though they may or may not) and I believe that is as bad as continuing the war in Afghanistan/Iraq, then according to idiot party first posters(and the mission statement) I must support these Democrats regardless? I think not. Listen to the Presidents speech on Wed. There's a good chance it will be an eloquent waffle with little or no reference to the Public Option as we've now switched our grovelling from Grassley to Snowe. And all us actual progressives(as opposed to Democrats) can go to hell under the theory we have no other place to go.

      •  That's half the story (2+ / 0-)
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        BruinKid, Wolf Of Aquarius

        The other half is that the 47% who voted for McCain are mad as hell.

        I know that fewer people will be voting Republican than did in 2008. The GOP hasn't done anything to win anyone over and are as unpopular as ever.  However, I think a LOT fewer Democrats will be at the polls. Part of the problem is that while President Obama remains personally popular, I don't think his coattails are that long or that strong.

        Organizing Democrats is like herding cats, while the right wing noise machine keeps the other side in line.  That could hurt us in a midterm election, just like in 1994.

        "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat." - Will Rogers

        by wayward on Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 03:56:27 PM PDT

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        •  Good point. (0+ / 0-)

          That was another point I had forgotten to make, that we need to remember that despite Obama's massive electoral victory, 47% of those that voted still voted for McCain.  And save for those that will have passed away by November 2010, they're still around, and angry.  We can't discount that.

          And the best case for lack of coattails is how Dan Seals still lost to Mark Kirk in IL-10, even when TWO polls had shown Seals winning the race.  (I originally had included Darcy Burner in this, but after talking to a few people at NN'09, I think the main reason was that hit piece by the Seattle Times that flat out lied about her degree from Harvard.)

          But OTOH, having campaigned there, I think Obama's coattails were in part responsible for Dina Titus winning in NV-03, but that's only because of a concerted effort there to tie the two together.  The door-hangers we left on the doors specifically said to vote for Obama AND Titus.  :-)

          •  About those coattails (0+ / 0-)

            People will come out to vote for Obama and many will vote for down ballot Democrats while they are in the booth. However, I don't think his coattails are strong enough to get people into the booth if he isn't on the ballot.

            "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat." - Will Rogers

            by wayward on Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 03:31:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Most Americans don't vote at all (2+ / 0-)
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      musing85, drumwolf

      in most elections. The question is not whether most Americans will vote Republican, but whether enough Dems and indies will bother to vote at all. If the elected Dems start listening to their base instead of "reaching out" to their sworn enemies, all will be well. If not they'll get a chance to learn yet another agonizing lesson. The strategy of just counting on massive GOP screwups isn't going to work forever -- at some point they're going to have to actually DO stuff that gets us to the polls.

      Everybody talkin' 'bout Heaven ain't goin' there -- Mahalia Jackson

      by DaveW on Sun Aug 30, 2009 at 03:33:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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