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View Diary: On Obama's "Dive In the Polls" And 2010 (222 comments)

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  •  Have been suspicious of this meme from the start (0+ / 0-)

    While it may be possible to predict the party in power losing seats in an off-year race, and find statistical evidence to prove it...it kind of relies on the idea that the opposition party isn't completely unhinged and engaged in unprecedented levels of fratricide.

    Who exactly are these "winners" from the GOP supposed to be that will gobble up these seats?  Neanderthals like McConnell in Virginia who want to turn the clock back, still, to 1950?  Morally bankrupt hacks like Newt Gingrich?  Snowbillies from Alaska?  Michael "Get Jiggy Wit it" Steele?

    What I suspect is more likely (forgive me my cynicism) is that the pollster community is laying the foundation for why they should be hired next year to help Democrats get elected, and placing an idea popular with the media (a knock down drag out political season) as bait to get them to do a little free advertising for them.

    If there are 20 vulnerable Democratic seats in the House it is likely less than the GOP obstructionists who are clinging to jobs above the Mason-Dixon.  We have them similarly on the ropes in the Senate with key GOP retiring to run for Governor or dogcatcher or something.  Plus, the GOP is still chock full of corrupt bastards who are just one tweet away from a national meltdown.

    Add to this environment the high likelihood that many a GOP incumbent will get a hard right wing primary challenge and will end up either losing to the base or have to say such embarrassingly obnoxious things to get renominated that they cannot possibly survive a general election.

    Fear not.  We are going to pick up seats in the House (10 to 12) and in the Senate (2 to 3).

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