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View Diary: GOP looks great in South, not so much in the rest of America (299 comments)

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  •  What states are in which region? (3+ / 0-)

    Geographic breakdown is totally the nazz. But for us detail weenies, which states are South? NE? Midwest? West?

    On behalf of detail derangement syndrome sufferers everywhere, thank you.

    •  Markos had a diary several months back... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      some other george, Matt Z, sethyeah

      which broke the nation down into four quadrants.  If I had time I'd search for it.  IIRC there was a different breakdown for House districts than for the Senate, to give each quadrant roughly 1/4 of the total members in each chamber.

      Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

      by Greasy Grant on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:13:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's linked in the diary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      some other george, sethyeah

      at the "just from last week's edition" link.

      The first thing that jumps out at me is how much bigger (population-wise) the South is than the other three regions.  So "just a regional party" isn't as bad as it sounds.

      "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

      by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:21:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A modest proposal (0+ / 0-)

      Before the 2008 election, Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) divided the states into eleven regions as follows:

      New England (34 EV):  CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT.
      Acela (62 EV):  DC, DE, MD, NJ, NY.
      Rust Belt (69 EV):  IN, MI, OH, PA.
      North Central (48 EV):  IA, IL, MN, WI.
      Prairie (17 EV):  KS, NE, ND, SD.
      Big Sky (18 EV):  AK, ID, MT, UT, WY.
      Pacific (77 EV):  CA, HI, OR, WA.
      Southwest (29 EV):  AZ, CO, NM, NV.
      Gulf Coast (58 EV):  AL, LA, MS, TX.
      South Coast (78 EV):  FL, GA, NC, SC, VA.
      Highlands (48 EV):  AR, KY, MO, OK, TN, WV.

      Clearly, eleven regions are too many, and some of them are so underpopulated that stable estimates are impossible.  So, I propose the following compromise:

      Pacific:  Pacific as above.  77 electoral votes.

      Southeast:  South Coast as above.  78 electoral votes.

      Northeast:  New England + Acela + PA.  117 electoral votes.

      West:  Southwest + Big Sky + Prairie + OK.  71 electoral votes.

      Midwest:  North Central + IN + OH + MI + MO + WV.  112 electoral votes.

      South:  Gulf Coast + AR + KY + TN.  83 electoral votes.

      As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

      by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 12:42:09 PM PDT

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      •  On second thought... (0+ / 0-)

        West Virginia (5 EV) probably belongs in the South, and the same could possibly be said of Missouri (11 EV).

        As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

        by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 01:02:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Numbers (0+ / 0-)

          After moving West Virginia to the South and leaving Missouri in the Midwest, the 2008 election looked like this:

          Northeast (117 EV):  21.16% of the total vote, of which 59.88% went to Obama and 38.71% went to McCain.

          Midwest (107 EV):  22.34% of the total vote, of which 54.90% went to Obama and 43.47% went to McCain.

          Southeast (78 EV):  16.96% of the total vote, of which 49.74% went to Obama and 49.25% went to McCain.

          South (88 EV):  14.96% of the total vote, of which 56.85% went to McCain and 41.92% went to Obama.

          West (71 EV):  10.19% of the total vote, of which 53.38% went to McCain and 44.76% went to Obama.

          Pacific (77 EV):  14.39% of the total vote, of which 60.22% went to Obama and 37.54% went to McCain.

          National figures:  Obama 52.87%, McCain 45.60%.

          Hmmm ... I didn't realize how much larger Northeast and Midwest were than the other regions ... perhaps Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia should form a separate region.

          Northeast (96 EV):  16.58% of the total vote, of which 61.37% went to Obama and 37.21% went to McCain.

          Midwest (70 EV):  14.18% of the total vote, of which 55.33% went to Obama and 43.14% went to McCain.

          South (83 EV):  14.42% of the total vote, of which 56.90% went to McCain and 41.90% went to Obama.

          New Region - Mideast (63 EV):  13.28% of the total vote, of which 53.79% went to Obama and 44.55% went to McCain.

          Other regions unchanged.

          As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

          by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 02:41:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  11 is not too many: underpop & Senate (0+ / 0-)

        means Senate seats easy to buy.  Look at Baucus, Rangel, and the rest of the gang of six on Finance Committee health care:  all tiny state senators, almost all from the mountain west (plus Maine). Big Sky is the reddest region in the country.

        Nate Silver's regions make a lot more sense than Kos's antique census regions.

        South Coast's 78 EVs went 55 for Obama 23 for McCain.  Doesn't sound so red, huh?

        Maybe some of you haven't seen these maps:
         http://www-personal.umich.edu/...
        Don't stop at the first one; scroll to the bottom.

        Or maybe kos just likes harping on the south and encouraging Civil War Tourette's.

        "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

        by jayskew on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 07:10:26 PM PDT

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        •  The Census Regions and Divisions... (0+ / 0-)

          ...don't make as much political sense.

          Northeast

          New England:  CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT.
          Middle Atlantic:  NJ, NY, PA.

          Midwest

          East North Central:  IL, IN, MI, OH, WI.
          West North Central:  IA, MN, MO, ND, NE, KS, SD.

          South

          South Atlantic:  DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV.
          East South Central:  AL, KY, MS, TN.
          West South Central:  AR, LA, OK, TX.

          West

          Mountain:  AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY.
          Pacific:  AK, CA, HI, OR, WA.

          As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

          by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:37:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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