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View Diary: WA-Gov recount: Report from the floor (LONG) (65 comments)

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  •  Some Numbers (4.00)
    King County: 58%-40% Gregoire
    Absentee ballots in King County: 60%-38% Gregoire
    The 573 ballots, if they are representative of the localities where they came from: 62%-36% Gregoire
    •  totals under this assumption (none)
      That means that we can expect something like the following

      Rossi edge now      106
      King ballots                595 = 573 + 22
      Rossi from King     226
      Gregoire from King -369

      Total after King   - 37  Gregoire wins by 37

      •  Where Do Your Figures Come From? (none)
        Specifically, "Rossi edge now" = 106?

        Looking at the Washington Secretary of State webpage for the recount as of late Wednesday, it looks as though Rossi has picked up a net margin of 79 additional votes over Gregoire for the counties that have reported their results.  Added to the margin he had of 42 after the machine recount, this would appear to give him a temporary lead of 121, reducing your projected Gregoire win to only 22.

        Since there are four counties left to report (King, Pierce, Snohomish and Spokane), and King is the only one of those won by Gregoire -- combined, the other three account for only slightly fewer votes than King alone and favored Rossi by a margin of 4.34% -- it seems clear that will come right down to the wire (as if we didn't already know that).

        Of course, if the percentages for the 595 King County ballots (which may not be the only source of changes there) reflect the overall voting percentages for the county (57.75% to 40.01%), Gregoire would only pick up a net of 106 from these.  It's all too much to think about.  We'll all just have to wait and see what the numbers are when the final counts are reported.

      •  Seattle Times did a precinct-level analysis (4.00)
        ... and projects a Gregoire margin of 140 votes from the 573.

        They appear to base this on total precinct results, i.e., NOT taking the richer absentee ballot margins into account.

        But that's if all the signatures pass muster when examined ... which ain't gonna happen.

        Still up in the air is the question of whether the Board can still notify these voters and seek confirmation. This could get VERY contentious.

        •  My #'s (none)
          Are from a similar analysis by municipality instead of precinct.  I used total vote counts and found Gregoire +148 (a 62-36 split).  It is probably better than that for her as absentees in King went 60-38 (+22%) while overall King went 58-41 (+17%).
          •  Correction (none)
            The 60-38 number I gave for Absentees in king county is off.  The actual numbers are as follows

            Absentees 58.45-39.43
            Add-Ons (Provisionals?) 59.14-37.22
            Polling 56.34-41.56
            Total 57.75-40.09

            Still, absentees in King County are significantly more Democratic than the county as a whole.  Gregoire's margin over absentees was 1.36% better than over the total county.

            Maybe Rove's turnout machine seemed to give the GOP a 1.4% election day boost even in blue King County.  Maybe the rich folks in Seattle are NYT liberals rather than WSJ conservatives.  But the fact that these are absentees helps, not hurts, our cause.

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