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View Diary: WA Gov -- Snohomish! (36/39) (99 comments)

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  •  do you think (none)
    Gregoire will get the 51 with King "as-is"? My very, very rough estimate (comparing King to Pierce and Snohomish) would be that Gregoire wil get around 100+ net out of King, which would give her @ a +50 final victory.
    •  magical thinking (none)
      I really, really don't want to predict anything.  I've been wrong far too often.

      You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

      by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 04:58:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no one's ever wrong (none)
        it's just that their particular quantum reality chose to align its outome differently. Elsewhere, Kerry is president and the Yankees won the World Series.

        :-)

        •  heh (none)
          Somewhere or another, I posted a comment today in which I likened the Wa Gov race to Schrodinger's cat.

          If you don't mind, I'd prefer to be in one of the many-worlds in which Bush isn't president and the Sox still won the Series.

          Far less probable than your choice, I suspect.

          You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

          by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 05:08:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  A Good Bet (none)
        If the KC573 are included, Gregoire will win. A Seattle Times precinct-level anaylsis predicted a 140 vote lead among those ballots. Based on that, odds are 99.5% that her margin is better than 75, and 97,5% that her margin is better than 92. Another 120 ballots will only help her.
    •  projections (none)
      If King County has an average number of additional votes without the 723:

      If Gregoire matches her performance in King County overall, she's +94 for a 44 vote win.

      If she matches her performance in the additional votes statewide relative to her overall performance statewide, she's +132 for an 82 vote win.

      •  similar (none)
        I see that I'm not the only spreadsheet jockey around here.

        My quick look at your first assumption says +93, but who's quibbling?

        You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

        by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 05:13:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I expect King to produce less than average ... (none)
        ... number of new votes.

        King was almost certainly most diligent than many counties in reviewing overvotes and undervotes during the machine recount phase.

        Without the 723, this could be a very close finish.

        However, it would be a sweet irony if:

        1. Gregoire picks up less than 50 votes in King County.
        2. GOP wins Supreme Court ruling to bar tabluation of King County "new ballots", and
        3. This in turn forces Red counties to revoke enough "new ballot" recount votes to lose Rossi the election.

        N, what sayeth your spreadsheet on this?
        •  many considerations (none)
          I'm going to try to review a few scenarios this weekend, though I haven't really worked out the particulars.  Gotta do some "real" work over the weekend too, in part to catch up with what I shirked while following today's events.

          I do agree that King will probably come out with fewer "new" votes than the projections might suggest, for the reason you describe.  In the machine recount, King's new votes constituted 40% of the total votes added though it's only 31% of the voters.  If they did a better job of ferreting out valid ballots (including some work on "intent of the voter") back then, it stands to reason that fewer additional ones are left to be unearthed.

          I'll put up a diary sometime over the weekend, though I don't want to make specific promises beyond that.

          I'm also thinking about a diary on the Battle of the 36th, though I'm not confident that I can do it justice.

          You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

          by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 08:25:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  OTOH, hesitation marks could juice it up (none)
            ... as discussed upthread, and possibly implicated in Pierce Co results.

            In short, we don't know ... but from several angles it looks good for Gregoire.

            The Battle of the 36th? That's only half over. Hit the first major agenda point 1.5 hours behind plan, and took a motion to adjourn an hour early.

            Next month: Sec, Treas, minor offices, plus bylaw changes substantially scrambling the minor office lineup.

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