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View Diary: Weekly Tracking Poll: New Feature Paints Ugly 2010 Picture (198 comments)

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  •  Enthusiasm gap will narrow (4+ / 0-)

    (1) HCR will pass and that will mobilize people

    (2) Democrats traditionally are "lazier" than GOP at getting involved in the cycle, but they show up in the end when there's bread and butter issues on the table

    (3) The GOP is down to such a hardcore minority that one should expect a higher commitment rate, since the Democratic party has a lot more newly-identified Democrats.

    As ever, turning out the base is extremely important in by elections, but in close races the margins will be with the independents. In Democratic districts, you want to overwhelm with your base. In more centrist districts, you want to doubly overwhelm with your base but campaign to the fence sitters.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Fri Nov 27, 2009 at 04:35:36 PM PST

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