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View Diary: Ben Bernanke Says He's Sorry, And He Won't Do It 'Again' (220 comments)

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  •  Roubini? (0+ / 0-)

    Who has been declaring since February that we were in a permanent bear market?  While the market went up 60 percent?  Yeah, great prognostications there, Nouriel.

    I am really enjoying my stimulus package.

    by Kevvboy on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 07:06:55 AM PST

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    •  The market is lower than it was 10 years ago... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      xynz, corvo, Badabing, ohmyheck

      so yeah, I think we might be in a permanent bear market. The companies represented for the most part have maxed out their potential market share. The effects of technology have largely created all the cost savings possible until someone makes magic.

    •  Current PE ratio (14+ / 0-)

      of S&P 500 approx 148-150. Historical mean of PE ratios, approx. 9.8.

      Implication -> the stock market is ridiculously overvalued and primed for a crash. Other evidence, major insiders selling. Ads on television trying to convince the suckers it's time to get invested again (TD Ameritrade).

      It's so obvious that this "rally" is going to be the greatest bear rally of all time. The only thing fueling it is the cheap money coming from the Fed, you know, the money that is supposed to be lent out to Main Street, not pumping up another speculative bubble, as it is currently.

      In every cry of every man, In every infant's cry of fear, In every voice, in every ban, The mind-forged manacles I hear

      by Areopagitica on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 07:20:06 AM PST

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      •  And we will end up looking exactly like Japan (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lotlizard, buckstop, ohmyheck

        and with 'no jobs' and our manufacturing base literally destroyed things are going to get mighty desperate, very quickly.

        Yet look at the dithering from the Bank of Japan, still faced with a deflationary environment years and years after they pushed to zero rates:

           It was no coincidence that the new government of Yukio Hatoyama chose the day when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) was holding a rate-setting meeting to make a lot of noise on the issue. Both the deputy prime minister and finance minister made concerned comments. Their unspoken message to the BoJ was clear: remove monetary-stimulus measures at your peril. At the end of its two-day meeting, the BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.1%, and continued to use other measures, such as buying government bonds, that it believes make monetary policy "extremely accommodative."

           But the BoJ does not give the impression it is particularly concerned about prices. It believes there are not yet clear signals of a deflationary mindset in corporations or the public at large, and that a recovery in private demand will eventually pull the economy out of its slump.

        Good Lord, we have been talking about pulling Japan out of its slump for TWO DECADES!  Fear of inflation combined with a perception that acquiescing to a higher inflation target would be akin to losing monetary independence has kept BoJ policy constrained for years, ensuring the citizens of Japan ongoing pain.  Is the Fed headed to the same place?  Maybe.  

        America is the only nation in history which miraculously has gone directly from barbarism to degeneration without the usual interval of civilization.

        by Badabing on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 09:40:51 AM PST

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      •  Hmm. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fladem, buckstop

        Please cite evidence that the current PE ratio of the S&P 500 is approximately 148-150.  I don't buy it.  The historical average is about 15-20 and right now I am pretty sure we're in that range.

      •  That is just wrong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the PE ratio isn't close to what you are suggesting.  According to Robert Shiller of Yake it is 19.8.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 10:50:59 AM PST

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      •  148-150 seems off by an order of magnitude. n/t (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        buckstop, thethinveil

        The Dutch kids' chorus Kinderen voor Kinderen wishes all the world's children freedom from hunger, ignorance, and war.

        by lotlizard on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 11:10:01 AM PST

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    •  Even the Great Roubini could not have predicted.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Badabing, thethinveil

      ....that Obama would give his blessing to inflating yet another bubble. Obama's hand-picked Secretary of the Treasury, along with his now hand-picked Chairman of the Fed, have conspired to use the US Treasury to pump liquidity into the market and reinflate stock prices.

      That's why the PE ratios are so outlandish.

      It's the Ponzi theory of economic policy: how to recover after your cheap debt bubble has burst? You just inflate another cheap-debt bubble!

      This Space For Rent

      by xynz on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 01:50:15 PM PST

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      •  You're wrong, (0+ / 0-)

        the PE ratios are not in the least outlandish but actually close to their historical average at about 15.

        I am really enjoying my stimulus package.

        by Kevvboy on Sat Nov 28, 2009 at 04:14:34 PM PST

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