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View Diary: "Clash over Christmas"? Or "Clash in Fallujah"? (127 comments)

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  •  Well.. (none)
    I wouldn't really conclude that.

    They believe (right or wrong) that the elections and an elected government in iraq will be the magic bullet that will finish off the the insurgency. Maybe in a couple of years but hopefully, not a quagmire.

    And it is quite possible too. I wouldn't really discount it.

    It could open another long term can of worms though if a pro-Teheran regime comes up and basically gives the current Viceroy of Iraq, the US ambassdor less control over what's happening there.

    The key thing to watch is how the Iraqis respond to the elections and what sort of government forms thereafter.

    •  Our disagreement (none)
      is profound on this issue.  Elections will do nothing to solve our problem - which is that we are the security force for Iraq.  Elections won't change that.  And they won't end the insurgency.  

      I'm thinkin', I'm thinkin'

      by Armando on Thu Dec 23, 2004 at 10:26:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  what am i missing? (none)
        why do you think a popular government won't be able to consolidate iraq?

        For the sake of discussion, i am just assuming there will be no ethnic conflict.

        If no conflict takes place and an elected government comes into power, it will have street legitimacy.

        Now: i don't know how the new government will react towards US military presence (the new government) and if attacks on US soldiers will discontinue.

        In the best case scenario of no ethnic conflict and universal participation, elections are the best bet.

        But will this happen? I don't know.

        •  For the sake of discussion? (none)
          Well then we can assume anything we want I suppose.  Would be a pretty pointless discussion.

          Here's my question though, do you think the insurgents will stop what they are doing because of the Election?  If not, then what is the solution as you see it?

          I'm thinkin', I'm thinkin'

          by Armando on Thu Dec 23, 2004 at 10:39:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Whaaaaaaat???? (none)
          "Popular Government"???

          Excuse me for a minute, and please pardon in advance my strong language...but are you fucking crazy?

          If Allawi gets elected, he will remain deeply UNpopular, and allegations of fraud and fixing will be rampant. The Shi'ia will explode as will most of the Sunnis...the Kurds will remain quietly building their own state.

          If the Shi'ia slate gets elected, then the Sunni violence will get even worse, the Shi'ia will attempt to expel the Americans and cleave to the Iranians, and the Kurds and the US will be busy undermining the government from day 1.

          If there is no majority, then the same game continues.

          "I am just assuming there will be no ethnic conflict"

          THERE ALREADY IS!!!!!

          Sunni vs Shi'ia vs Kurd vs Turkoman vs Chaldean vs Marsh Arab vs Moderate vs Fundamentalist vs Arab vs Persian vs Muslim vs Christian.

          COME ON.

          Your entire fantasy is based on an assumption that is ALREADY proven deadly false.

          How can you even begin to formulate a thesis at that point?

          The only way to ensure a free press is to own one

          by RedDan on Thu Dec 23, 2004 at 10:40:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  The elections? (none)
      How are they going to hold elections in a country where 40% of the population live in areas that US troops can't even operate in?  And when these pseudo-elections take place, what do you think will happen to the Sunni's and the Kurds?  

      Arrogant lips are unsuited to a fool-- how much worse lying lips to a ruler - Proverbs 17:7

      by Barbara Morrill on Thu Dec 23, 2004 at 10:35:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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