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View Diary: FL-Sen: Diaz-Balarts abandon Crist (312 comments)

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  •  depends (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    demnomore, xsonogall

    if Crist wins the GOP primary, no one will beat him.

    We are a closed primary state with about 25% independents. (probably more at this point).

    If Rubio wins the primary, we at least have some chance of getting a D in there.  People can argue about Meek's chances against Rubio and it would be a slog, for sure, but nobody beats Crist in statewide general.

    Personally I think Meek is weaker than id like but I think he's running a smart campaign so far. He has money but has chosen to get on the ballot through petition. He's collected 150-200K signatures statewide so far and I think that's a smart way to create/establish a base of support in every county/city/town.

    He'll do well in the south end of the state. He'll do well in tampa and orlando. The fight is in tallahassee, gaineville (a college town) and other areas in the central part of the state. Rubio will do well with older cubans in south florida; in the panhandle and rural areas of the state and probably decently in the SW corner of the state.  He'll have to fight for votes in Tampa and Orlando. My county sits between them and is mostly red but has some large population centers that will make it very close if Meek taps into them.

    Meek vs Rubio would be tight - an all out fight.  But a Rubio win wouldn't be much worse than Martinez who literally was a Bush favorite.  Meek would be the most "progressive" (certainly left of our present dem senator BILL Nelson) and Crist would be right of BILL Nelson but not that much. I feel Crist would vote mostly with Republicans.

    •  Sounds good, but my fear is that... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdmslle

      ...if the predictions for a slow economy in 2010 are true, generic R will defeat a D unless the D has a clear advantage.  If we're going into 2010 as the underdog already, our candidate needs to be strong...  I appreciate that he is running a smart campaign and that he is better than bill nelson, but I'm not convinced he's someone like a Beau Biden that the state Democrats would be so gung ho for to give him a fighting chance in the election.

      I hope I am wrong because it is really looking like Rubio vs Meek at this point....

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 11:07:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  predictions have been wrong all year (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BruinKid, xsonogall

        I think we will be seeing recovery by summer 2010.  

        Remember: most of the stimulus was set to start going out in 2010 and that there is about to be a new jobs push with the remainder of what was left of TARP (300 Billion - with a B).

        That much money going into the economy will have an effect.

        Heck, this time last year, my husband and I were seriously considering removing every dime we had from the bank and buying gold. I never imagined that things would be so much more stable so soon.  People seem to have forgotten about the near panic we all felt a year ago as we daily watched the stock market plummet and foreign counties markets react and GW sitting on the sidelines as if to say "what can i do?" and Obama saying "I'm cant! Only one president at a time".

        God.

        Predictions have been wrong all year. About Obama, about the economy.  I think this is just another prediction that won't be accurate.  And teh GOP is the one with the handicap: they voted against every single measure designed to help americans through this tough time. 10.2% of people who will get extended unemployment - because of democrats. 10.2% of americans who had cobra extended. Or the change to redo their mortgage. Or additional food assistance. Or free child health care.  Or who were teachers or policemen who were able to keep a job. And the GOP had NOTHING to do with any of that.

        No. I reject the notion that the Dems are the underdogs.  The GOP has some explaining to do. That's why the polls are going UP right now for Dems and Obama.  Most folks aren't super wonky and from that perspective it really looks like the Dems are getting things done.  Its the GOP that has to explain itself.

        •  I agree, just don't want to get my hopes up... (0+ / 0-)

          ...about the state of our nation in 2010.

          That said, it really still seems like Rubio is the rising star of the GOP.  Like Barack Obama was in Illinois a while back.  Or Sarah Palin was for the GOP when she was first introduced in 2008.  Or Beau Biden is for Delaware (I think?  seems people were excited for him to run when the idea came up; which is why I'm wondering why he's still not running).  Just someone who will be formidable in a general election regardless of the circumstances.

          I hate to use the whole "Cuban-American" issue here as well, but do you see many Cubans voting against this guy?  If not, then we'll need Meek to get more of the non-Cuban American vote that Obama got from McCain last year.  Seems like a tough task.

          Anyway, not trying to be a downer here (even though I sure I'm being one).  Just really concerned about not only losing a seat, but giving rise to the GOP's next Palin.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 11:34:01 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Are you sure about South Florida? (0+ / 0-)

      Yes, South Florida is decidedly the more liberal part of the state.

      But it is also very heavily Cuban.

      And Marco Rubio is a Cuban.

      I certainly give Meeks better chances if his opponent is Rubio than if it is Crist, but I still don't like his chances, particularly if 2010 plays out like it looks like it will right now, with Republicans being heavily favored to make gains nationwide.

      If the election were tomorrow, I'd say Rubio takes Meeks pretty easily.  Not so much because of the candidates involved, but because of the current frustration with the party in power, and the seriously weakened enthusiasm of the Democratic Party base.  According to the R2K polls, something like 85% of Republicans definitely plan to vote in 2010, whereas only 55% of Democrats are saying the same thing.  If the numbers played out even close to that in a purplish state like Florida, we lose.

      IMO, the next U.S. Senator from Florida is either going to be Charlie Crist or Marco Rubio.  I'm not giving Crist good odds of beating Rubio in the GOP primary, but in a statewide general election open to all Floridians, I think Crist trounces him.

      It just looks to me like a question of which is better... a bird in the hand (if we can get Crist to switch sides), or one in the bush (hoping Meeks can defeat Rubio, which I don't think he could if the election were tomorrow).

      Crist becoming a Democrat might not be our only chance at winning that seat in 2010, but I think it's clearly our best chance at doing that.

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