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View Diary: A New Threat to the Sanctity of Marriage (178 comments)

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  •  You missed my point (0+ / 0-)

    You said that the marriage rate is not necessarily correlated with the divorce rate in a state, because people can get married in one state and divorced in another state. But you yourself are furthering the idea that the presence of gay marriage in Massachusetts could be correlated with the low divorce rate in Massachusetts. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, it is likely that the divorce rate in Massachusetts has nothing to do with gay marriage. For one thing, the marriage rate itself is very low in Massachusetts. It has one of the lowest marriage rates in the country. The divorce laws there are very strict and abusive, and many people choose not to get married for this reason.


    I wrote in another comment in this thread about the correlates of divorce. Scientists have studied divorce and found out what factors correlate with divorce. Namely:

    Age at marriage: People who marry before age 20 are more likely to divorce than those who marry at later ages.

    Premarital pregnancy: People who experience premarital pregnancy or premarital childbearing are more likely to divorce than those who have children after marriage.

    Parental separation: People who experienced the divorce of their parents are more likely to have a divorce themselves when they get married.

    Premarital cohabitation: Couples who cohabit before marriage are more likely to divorce than those who do not cohabit.

    Religiosity: Couples who do not have strong religious beliefs are more likely to divorce than couples with strong religious beliefs.

    Socioeconomic background: Divorce is higher among people from low socioeconomic backgrounds and among people with lower levels of educational attainment.

    Source: Welch, K. (2007). Family life now: A conversation about marriages, families, and relationships.


    Massachusetts has a higher average age at first marriage, higher educational level, higher income level, and a large number of Catholics. All these factors correlate with a low divorce rate. Gay marriage has nothing to do with it.

    •  I think this is the upshot (1+ / 0-)
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      In fact, it is likely that the divorce rate in Massachusetts has nothing to do with gay marriage.

      There is no evidence to suggest equality affects divorce rates.  Those who wish to ban marriage equality insist there is a correlation in the negative.

      •  Yeah, that's what I said (0+ / 0-)

        Gay marriage has nothing to do with divorce rates. It doesn't affect it one way or the other. So stop claiming that states that allow gay marriage have low divorce rates, as if that means the factors are related. They are not related.

        •  What I was saying is not what you were reading (0+ / 0-)

          My first post was going after the comment that claimed they were correlated. They aren't. You somehow took my next statement which was that there are low divorce rates in MA as then deciding I thought they were. Why, I still don't know. Then we went back and forth arguing about some definitional/semantic/syntatic thing I still don't get. The two stats are not correlated. I never said they were. But the diarist was making the point that the right claims they somehow are correlated. Your data is what they should be looking at but that doesn't give them warm fuzzies in their quest to ban gay marriage so they'll just ignore it.

          I stand by the truth, that way I don't have to be near any Republicans.

          by ontheleftcoast on Sun Jan 17, 2010 at 04:40:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  To be clear (0+ / 0-)

            Your first comment did not say that there is correlation between gay marriage and the divorce rate. You said there was no correlation between the marriage rate in a state and the divorce rate in that state. And further, the diarist did not say that the right claims gay marriage and divorce are correlated. She posted a link to someone on the left who claims they are correlated. My point that I am trying to make is that I don't think they are correlated. Why do you think I'm posting the CORRELATES OF DIVORCE from a standard textbook in the field of marriage and families?

            Support for gay marriage correlates with education and income. States with a higher average income and higher educational levels show more support for gay marriage. It just so happens that education and income also correlate very strongly with divorce. States with a higher average income and higher educational levels have lower rates of divorce.

            If liberals keep citing these statistics about divorce rates in gay marriage states, how long before conservatives start citing the declining marriage rate in gay marriage states as a way to support their claim that gay marriage undermines the institution of marriage?

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