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View Diary: [UPDATED:] OH-01: John Boehner now proudly tweeting FDL/Jane Hamsher's polling (314 comments)

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  •  And if frogs had wings on their backsides.. (1+ / 0-)
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    You're missing the point.  Steve Driehaus is the kind of Democrat we should be protecting, not helping John Boehner get elected out of Congress.  Research Steve Chabot and come back here.  I'll wait.

    •  I think that giving a wakeup call (2+ / 0-)
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      JesseCW, Onomastic

      ...ten months before the election is helping Steve Driehaus unless he's trying to avoid a serious election fight.

      Yeah, Steve Chabot sucks, and must not win.  But the election is not now, it is in November.  I would like to see a progressive Democrat take on John Boehner.  Now, I could sell popcorn to that fight.

      50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

      by TarheelDem on Sat Jan 16, 2010 at 06:31:36 PM PST

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      •  It would be a wake up call, if... (0+ / 0-)

        Jane Hampsher would be saying donate to his campaign.... help him... she doesn't.  Instead, she's happy to have her poll, that progressive donors gave her the money to do, to give John Boehner twitter fodder because she's pissed over the public option.  It's really that petty.

        •  He never set up a campaign (1+ / 0-)
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          His decision came before the filing deadline (unless I'm mistaken). So there was no campaign legally for her to ask moneys for beyond the generic fund that FDL has set up for House supporters of healthcare reform.

          The Twitter fodder I want to see is a Democrat announcing to challenge John Boehner.  Are there a bunch of spineless Dems in Boehner's district?

          The polling that they are doing is to demonstrate the devastating effect that the Senate bill is having on House members.  Given that the bill is still in negotiations, that sort of pressure is legitimate to getting a better bill.  If Driehaus is still in trouble in April, it will be because the Senate hung the House members out to dry not because of a SUSA poll.

          The killing of the public option in the Senate is demonstrably why healthcare reform is polling worse than it was in November.  And most of the folks who are being polls don't ready blogs of any kind.

          50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

          by TarheelDem on Sat Jan 16, 2010 at 08:55:16 PM PST

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          •  You don't know Ohio... (0+ / 0-)

            First, nothing in that poll supports what you wrote.  Nothing.

            Second, I know this district.  I live next to it.  I've lived in it.  This is Teabagging Country.  Like some of the biggest rallies in the State.  You know those early town halls being disrupted by tea baggers?  It was Driehaus.  He STILL supported health care with a public option.  And Jane isn't lifting a finger to help him... she's giving Boehner fodder instead.

            The Democratic Party here is a mess.  There are two progressive PACs working hard to change that.  But this is one of the few regions that went for Ken Blackwell and McCain.  Demographically speaking, this is simply not a winnable district for Dems (Boehner's), especially given the lack of a pool of strong candidates among Democrats.

            •  Massachusetts isn't winnable (0+ / 0-)

              ...for Teabaggers, but look at what Scott Brown has done.

              Challengers win when the incumbent is complacent.

              I do know enough about OH-01 to know that it is a tough nut to crack.  That entire section of riverfront Congressional districts all are.

              It sounds like the local Democratic Party is more of a problem for Driehaus than Jane Hamsher is.

              Driehaus is still running, right? He would be your candidate for 2010.  Get him 170,000 votes.  There are nine plus months to go.  Boehner is not going to sway Democratic turnout, is he?

              For Boehner's district you need a candidate only strong enough to cause Boehner to have to work for it and pull resources from elsewhere.  And again it is a matter of figuring out where those 170,000 votes come from.  If you miss it, you miss it, but folks in his district need an alternative to vote for.

              Same for Jean Schmitt's district.

              Teabaggers are beginning to splinter.  Some are figuring out that they have been astroturfed to support mainstream GOP candidates and they don't like it.  From a campaign strategy standpoint, that can be a wedge.  There are about four different sorts of Teabaggers.  The Dick Armey Freedomworks astroturfers who are still following their instructions; the neo-Nazi, neo-Confederate hangers-on; the LaRouchies; the Ron Paul folks, who have sorta been backing away from identification with the other Tea Baggers.  While loud, they are not large in numbers (certainly nothing approaching even 10,000 in your area I bet).  But there are mainstream Republicans who dislike the tone that the Republicans in Congress have taken and there are angry populist types who could become outraged about the banks and insurance companies.  But those are the margins of votes.  The great challenge will be to turn out those folks who turned out in 2008 and in the numbers that they turned out in 2008.  And polls aren't gonna mean much to them.  It will be all about what have you done for me lately.

              The main vulnerability of Republicans in Congress is that they have marched in lockstep to prevent solutions of America's problems.  That chains them all together just like in 2006 and 2008.  Having candidates in every district is important to diffusing GOP resources and being able to pick up some improbable wins.

              There is no such thing in 2010 as an unwinnable district for Dems (or progressives).  Until the day after election day.   There is also no such thing as a safe district for Dems.  Organize turnout, turnout, turnout and do it quietly until August.  Offyear elections are won with turnout. Not polls.

              50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

              by TarheelDem on Sat Jan 16, 2010 at 10:00:43 PM PST

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              •  No offense (0+ / 0-)

                But it's because Steve Driehaus listened to outside bloggers like Jane Hamsher and you that he finds himself in this predictament.  

                I love how you just dump this all on us local Democrats.  If he loses, after voting the way YOU ALL WANTED, it's our fault.  We're not lifting a finger.

                But had he not voted that way, we were ready to ride him out on a rail.

                Don't see the disconnect?

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