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View Diary: MA-Sen: Ten Days of Scott Brown (237 comments)

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  •  A few days ago I would have doubted it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cameoanne

    But now even Intrade gives Brown full 2 to 1 odds for winning the seat:

    http://www.intrade.com/...

    Unreal.

    A health care worker, beaten at work, then denied health care: HelpAmelia.com

    by cartwrightdale on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 08:57:41 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  What the Fuck is intrade all about? (0+ / 0-)

      Do they now vote?

      •  Nope, however... (0+ / 0-)

        They are almost never, and I do mean NEVER, wrong.

        When people put money on the line, they tend to let their inner most beliefs guide it. When lots of people put money on the line, those beliefs coalesce into a cumulative prediction that's more accurate than even a poll. It's a model that has predicted political winners with frightening accuracy for years now.

    •  Intrade is easily swayed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      happymisanthropy

      One person willing to be heavily on a particular side can move it.

      In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

      by blue aardvark on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 09:13:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This was true five days ago... (0+ / 0-)

        Not so much any more. There's a lot of shares in this race now, and the more people that get buy in, the more solid Brown's odds get.

        Not trying to be a downer, but I happen to be an Intrade fan. It's served me very well in the past, and trashing it because it's not telling you what you want to hear is wrong.

        •  Well, OK (0+ / 0-)

          I haven't paid attention to Intrade. But it still only takes one person willing to lose money in order to move the results to change Intrade around. It just takes more money as more people come in on the other side.

          In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

          by blue aardvark on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 09:47:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Very true, however... (0+ / 0-)

            The loss of money, and in a race with this many shares I'm talking about thousands of dollars, tends to make that prohibitive.

            What you're suggesting is definitely possible. It's just not that likely, is all.

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