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View Diary: Enthusing the Urban Base for 2012 (5 comments)

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  •  Here is a post I wrote earlier about MD's (1+ / 0-)
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    2002 Governor's race. Brown won the way that Ehrlich did.

    What fueled Brown's victory was strong support (3+ / 0-)

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       wishingwell, kitebro, HylasBrook

    in the suburbs/exurbs around Boston. Ehrlich won in MD by carrying the exurbs of Baltimore/DC by a 3-1 margin and winning the inner Baltimore suburbs by a 2-1 margin. Much like Ehrlich, when he faces the voters again in 2012, Brown can't afford to lose much of those voters. If his Democratic challenger in 2012 can hold his margins in those exurbs and suburbs to 55% of the vote or even less, even if Brown still wins them, Brown will lose anyway.

    In 2002, when he defeated KKT, Ehrlich won both Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties by 2-1 margins. Out of both counties he had a 110,000 vote lead. He carried Howard County by a 55-44% margin. In Carroll and Frederick counties he had margins well above 70%. In Carroll County I think he even got 78%. Add in the eastern shore and western panhandle and there were just enough votes for Ehrlich to win 52-47% over KKT.

    In 2006, though, Ehrlich's numbers fell significantly. He only got 51% in Baltimore County, 56% in Anne Arundel County, 69% in Carroll County, and 60% in Frederick County. He also lost Howard county outright by less than 1%. That wasn't enough for him to win.

    Ehrlich won in 2002 with 879,592 votes to KKT's 813,422 votes. O'Malley won in 2006 with 942,279 to Ehrlich's 825,464 votes. O'Malley did bring out 50K more votes from Baltimore city, but he managed to win with almost 130K more votes than KKT. MOM was able to increase his vote share significantly within the Baltimore/Washington exurbs and inner Baltimore suburbs.

    Brown has the same math working against him. He has to dominate those exurbs and suburbs. He also has to hope that Boston turnout is as low as it was in 2010. He has a greater needle to thread.

    The reason that I keep mentioning Ehrlich is the strong similarity between him and Brown. If the Democratic candidate can bring out votes in Boston and can run more competitively in those exurbs and suburbs, Brown will lose.

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