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View Diary: Polls: Big Boost for Obama (293 comments)

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  •  Mr. Cook (0+ / 0-)

    Thanks for you analysis.  I've got a question for you.  Currently, Republicans are +3 in's generic ballot average.  I don't remember exactly where the Democrats where in February of 2006 and 2008, but I think they were farther ahead.

    How do a relatively modest advantage for Republicans, and the presence of the Tea Party factor into your analyses/predictions for the midterms?

    Oba-MA bumaye! Oba-MA bumaye!

    by fou on Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 12:48:36 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Cook (0+ / 0-)

      Sorry for delay, hope you still see this, this is my first time back on since Monday.

      Democrats were routinely getting generic ballot leads that were high single digits and into double digits during the 2006 and 2008 election years.  Dems won the popular vote by eight points on election day in 2008.  So this is real different.  Would suggest you read closely Stan Greenberg's latest Democracy Corps analysis from January 29, very sobering analysis for Democrats.  Keep in mind that Stan was President Clinton's pollster in both 1992 and more importantly 1994, plus did Democracy Corps polling (plus a lot more) in 2006, so this isnt his first rodeo, in terms of nationalized elections.

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