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View Diary: Arkansas Race from an Arkansan Point of View (137 comments)

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  •  Lincoln has no opportunity to pull a Lieberman (24+ / 0-)

    It is my fear that if Lincoln does lose the primary she will pull a Lieberman and tell the voters of Arkansas that she does not care that she was not the Democratic choice and run as an independent.

    Their situations are nothing alike.  Lieberman was running in a blue state, where the Republican nominee had no chance of winning.  The national party virtually abandoned the GOP nominee in favor Lieberman.  He also had a ton of independent support and a good amount of Republican support.

    In Arkansas, the Republicans are very likely to take the seat.  There's no way the GOP would abandon their candidate for Lincoln.  Moreover, Lincoln has no support from Republicans and very little from independents.

    There's no way Lincoln will run as an independent.

    •  your comments are logical... (7+ / 0-)

      ...however, the question to me, is whether Lincoln will follow the logical route should she lose the Democratic primary and...call it quits, or if she will run just to spite her Democratic opponent. So far, she has seemed all too willing to tell everyone, her constituents included, to "go to heck," she'll do whatever she wants.

    •  Does Arkansas have a sore loser law? (9+ / 0-)

      CT didn't/doesn't, which is why Lieberman (Disgrace-CT) is still a senator.

    •  I believe its not possible, either (6+ / 0-)

      The commentary on Lieberman's move described that most states prohibit the loser of a primary from running at all.

      •  She's got another problem (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, mrkvica, elwior, 1BQ, SuetheRedWA, Loge

        Lie-berman ran in a very specialized climate: an overwhelmingly Democratic state where the Republicans tacitly agreed to stand down altogether. So Lie-berman got virtually all the Republican vote, with enough Democratic vote left over that didn't yet realize what he'd become to put him over the top.

        In Arkansas, Lincoln running as an independent doesn't mean she'll skate to election, because the Republoicans won't stand down.  It means the Republican will skate to election. All she'll do is prevent Halter from being elected.

        Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

        by anastasia p on Thu Mar 04, 2010 at 09:03:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  even more specialized than that (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mrkvica, hoplite9, 1BQ

          the republicans didn't agree to stand down in CT, but going into it they figured they had no chance against lieberman, an entrenched incumbent with scads of money and a sitting on both sides of the fence record.

          so they nominated a placeholder candidate, a small-town mayor nobody had ever heard of, who turned out to have a gambling problem to boot.  once lieberman got into trouble though, they tried to force the guy out of the race, and he refused. so they were stuck with him.

          on top of that, word came down from karl rove that it was more important to keep lieberman in the democratic caucus stabbing us in the back than actually pick up their own seat.

          so for all those reasons, the CT GOP put their resources and implicit endorsement behind lieberman. IIRC the republican came in at like 10% of the vote, probably older republicans who hadn't gotten the word, or couldn't vote for a "democrat" even if he appeared on a different ballot line.

          bottom line: there is simply no way that scenario gets repeated here. she would have to both register for the indie line in the next week, and then have the GOP nominee die or go down in flames late in the game.

          51 senators is a majority.
          no more excuses.

          by zeke L on Thu Mar 04, 2010 at 09:31:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Good Points (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mrkvica, 1BQ

            One scenario that I DO see being repeated here is the Democratic party and Obama rallying around the incumbent regardless of what is best for the party, the country, or what the voters of Arkansas want.

            During the CT primary, we were not just fighting LIEberman, but the entire Democratic party apparatus, which went as far as sending Bill Clinton to stump for LIEberman in the final days of the primary. It was an amazing victory and one which I had hoped would send a strong message to the party. It did not.

            Rather than support Lamont, our candidate, in the general election, the party establishment wrote the race off as a "win-win" claiming that they didn't care whether Lamont or LIEberman won and weren't going to devote resources to the race. Almost nobody from the party came to CT to campaign for Lamont.

            As one acquaintance explained to me, the message he took from Bill Clinton NOT coming back to stump for Lamont was that there must be something wrong with the candidate.

            I've already heard Tim Kaine assert DNC's wholehearted support for Lincoln. I've read that Obama supports her too. So here we go again. The Democrats never learn. I just hope Arkansas has a good sore loser law so Lincoln can't pull a LIEberman.

      •  To be clear...they can't get on the ballot (0+ / 0-)

        They can still run a write-in campaign and get elected. Important if the local KKK chief steals a primary.

        "Grab a mop -- let's get to work. "
        -- President Barack Obama, Oct 2009

        by davewill on Thu Mar 04, 2010 at 12:44:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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