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View Diary: WA-Sen: Murray Polling Strong (107 comments)

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  •  Research 2000 has pro-Dem "house effects" (0+ / 0-)

    According to Nate Silver IIRC. BUt it's a good antidote to the Ras polls.

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    by MNPundit on Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 02:05:18 PM PDT

    •  not *this* poll ... it's waaay too pessimistic (0+ / 0-)

      Take a look at the crosstabs by Congressional District.  It shows Murray beating Rossi by a mere 63%-31% in Jim McDermott's WA-07.

      That's ludicrously low.  Rossi lost WA-07 to Chris Gregoire -- a far worse campaigner than Patty Murray -- by 73%-25% (PDF, see p.38).  That was in 2004, when the Gregoire-Rossi race was razor-thin, when Rossi's doctrinaire conservatism was still hidden behind his smarmy smirk and content-free babble.

      In their 2008 rematch, when Gregoire defeated Rossi comfortably, her margin in WA-07 was 77%-20% (PDF, p.6).

      Based on those observations, the R2000 poll horribly underestimates a potential Murray lead over Rossi in WA-07, probably by at least 20%.

      grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

      by N in Seattle on Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 05:39:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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