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View Diary: National Tracking Poll: Hard Choices and Political Dividends (103 comments)

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  •  As for our Democratic senate seats (1+ / 0-)
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    itskevin

    North Dakota is gone

    Delaware is gone unless Castle steps in poo, sleeps with a live girl, or ties himself too close to the teabaggers

    Indiana leans in the wrong direction, but Ellsworth is going up against a weak ex-Senator (Coats) and a candidate he knows how to beat (Hostettler)

    Reid is in bad shape but I think he survives because the Republican candidates aren't really top-tier

    Pennsylvania is 50-50 because Specter is old and I'm concerned about his ability to run a hard campaign

    Colorado leans in the wrong direction...Bennet must tout the fact that he was one of the champions for the public option

    Giannoulias will take out Kirk in Illinois...the Chicago machine will pull him through

    Boxer and Feingold will sweat a little but hold on and win by 5-10%

    As for the Republican seats:

    New Hampshire is very winnable because Ayotte is an inexperienced campaigner. Hodes needs to raise more money, but he should start hammering Ayotte as the campaign heats up.

    Missouri is close but there is a slight lean to Blunt over Carnahan because the state leans a little red

    Ohio is all dependent on money...Fisher/Brunner will need a lot of it to keep up with Portman. Whichever Dem comes out of the primary must tie Portman and Bush inextricably together

    •  Ohio not dependent on money (5+ / 0-)

      If it were, Ohio is gone too. Portman will have double or triple the money of whuchever Democrat wins the primary. If Ohio were dependent on money, Sherrod Brown would not be in the Senate. And tying Portman to Bush isn't essential; tying Portman to his OWN policies is. Portman is an unrepentant free trader. In Ohio, that's like saying you're a child molester. But things are getting weird in Ohio, and the "mainstream" Republicans are getting all kinds of teabag challenges from the (ultra ultra ultra) right. And the Libertarians are running a full slate. This one's volatile, and money will be one of the lesser factors.

      Stop Rob "The Job Outsourcer" Portman. Jennifer Brunner for Senate http://www.jenniferbrunner.com/

      by anastasia p on Sat Mar 27, 2010 at 09:00:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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