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View Diary: Global Climate Change "Skepticism" (43 comments)

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  •  This is what settled science looks like... (1+ / 0-)
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    millwx

    20 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 25 years. The warmest year globally was 2005 with the years 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002, and 1998 all tied for 2nd within statistical certainty. (Hansen et al., 2010) The warmest decade has been the 2000s, and each of the past three decades has been warmer than the decade before and each set records at their end. The odds of this being a natural occurrence are estimated to be one in a billion! (Schmidt and Wolfe, 2009)

    One in a billion - that's damn close to "certain"....

    That "hopey-changey thing"? Takes a Magic Hawaiian to pull it off...

    by BobTrips on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 11:15:47 AM PDT

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    •  And I will bet you... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jrooth, BobTrips

      2010 will break the record for the warmest ever.

      Not only do we have the anthropogenic forcing increasing every year that goes by, but we also have an El Nino (albeit weakening) occurring in conjunction with a VERY warm Atlantic.  Keeping in mind that the earth is 2/3rds ocean... this is going to contribute tremendously to some warm numbers.  The first three months of this year are already tied (with 2002) for the warmest Jan-Feb-Mar ever.  April 2002 backed off, but early evidence suggests that April 2010 will not... at least not much.  We'll see how the rest of the month plays out, but it it VERY likely that after the first third of the year 2010 will be far and away the warmest first third of the year on record.  Thereafter, I suspect it may fade a bit (as the El Nino weakens), but it may well remain the #1 year and finish up in 1st place... a dubious distinction.

      Be that self which one truly is. -Soren Kierkegaard

      by millwx on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 11:22:22 AM PDT

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      •  About the only thing that will stop it... (0+ / 0-)

        Is if the current volcano in Iceland triggers the much larger semi-dormant one next to it and kicks a huge dust/chemical sunshade into the air.  Or another large volcanic eruption, especially closer to the equator.

        Some datasets - Jan - March hottest ever.  

        It was the hottest March in both satellite records (UAH and RSS), and tied for the hottest March on record in the NASA dataset.  It was the hottest (or tied for hottest) January through March in all three records.

        That "hopey-changey thing"? Takes a Magic Hawaiian to pull it off...

        by BobTrips on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 11:35:27 AM PDT

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        •  Volcanoes (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jrooth, BachFan, BobTrips, millwx

          Indeed, it's not generally dust from volcanoes that cools the planet, but sulfur dioxide.  Furthermore, it's mainly sulfur dioxide from equatorial volcanoes that cools the planet, due to the way atmospheric circulation currents work.  But Iceland does have a glaring exception in Hekla, which is both extremely sulfur dioxide and fluorine-rich and intense, enough to overcome its latitude disadvantage.

          •  You read my mind (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Rei

            I was going to say the same thing, but decided not to because it seemed like a tangent.  Even if it could cool 2010, we'll be on our way to the next record soon enough.

            But, you've got it right (not that I need to tell you... you obviously know what you're talking about).  It is predominantly the SO2 ejecta from volcanoes that induces the global cooling effects.  And many volcanoes are not high SO2 producers.  Recall the major eruption off of South America about a year or two ago.  That was likely large enough to yield global cooling were it an SO2 rich volcano.  It's not.  And it did nothing.

            Be that self which one truly is. -Soren Kierkegaard

            by millwx on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 12:11:45 PM PDT

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            •  But time is of the essence... (0+ / 0-)

              It could well be a political (and long term climatic)problem if something random causes 2010 to not be the very hot year that it seems to becoming.

              A really hot year is going to knock a lot of doubters off the fence this year, not some later years, and speed our transition away from fossil fuels.

              --

              BTW, look for a lot of help from rising oil prices and the impending launch of the Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi iMev.  Gas back over $4 a gallon is going to boost the EV/PHEV market.  And help build more public transportation.

              That "hopey-changey thing"? Takes a Magic Hawaiian to pull it off...

              by BobTrips on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 02:57:40 PM PDT

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    •  Well, maybe it's pedantic of me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BachFan

      But pretty much by definition, no science is ever "settled."

      I understand the idea of keeping points short, but on the other hand saying "settled" to a certain extent plays into the denialists' hands because they can then point to any scientific dispute (even though it's about details, not about the big picture) and use that to make the person who says "settled" look like a liar.

      It may be the hard way, but I don't think this moves much on the policy front without educating the public more about how science is done, and that includes messy stuff like speaking of probabilities instead of certainties.

      He took a duck in the face at two hundred and fifty knots.

      by jrooth on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 12:17:09 PM PDT

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      •  "Settled" is a probability statement... (0+ / 0-)

        See my post elsewhere in this thread about the odds of the observed warming being natural are estimated to be one in a billion.

        That "hopey-changey thing"? Takes a Magic Hawaiian to pull it off...

        by BobTrips on Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 03:00:24 PM PDT

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