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View Diary: Likely voter screen doesn't explain Rasmussen "house effect" (103 comments)

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  •  That's it? (0+ / 0-)

    In conclusion:

    The shifting size of the "house effect" is certainly something worthy of additional exploration.

    Why?

    Say Ras makes up the numbers until the last few weeks. What is the point?

    Here is a "crime" with no "motivation" spelled out: Is it that polls supposedly influence elections? Where is the proof of that?

    Seems we have an incomplete thought here.

    Support good reform not a political party blindly.

    by Eposter on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 09:38:57 AM PDT

    •  Yes - polls drive narratives (4+ / 0-)

      The media tends to feed on whatever horse race it can find.  If the candidates themselves aren't making news, then the polls fill in the gaps.  And Rasmussen's been filing in a LOT of gaps lately.

      Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves. - William Pitt

      by Phoenix Rising on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 09:45:06 AM PDT

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      •  Where is the information that polls influence the (0+ / 0-)

        outcome of elections? That would be interesting reading to me. Or is that a generally accepted assumption. I tend to be suspicious of such things.

        I believe campaigns use polls in their narratives. But using them in a narrative doesn't mean they actually influence anything. Candidates make a big deal about endorsements from newspapers and other politicians. Do those endorsements deliver votes? I'm not convinced. Same thing with polls.

        Support good reform not a political party blindly.

        by Eposter on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 09:56:29 AM PDT

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        •  'Cause TV doesn't sell soap, ya know. Riiiiight. (0+ / 0-)

          Wake up and smell the coffee.  Or watch MadMen for an entertaining primer.  The Media makes the Message, the Message makes the Votes.

          Or do you really think all those peeps understood what the frak Bush1 meant with 'A thousand pts of Light'? Seriously?

          •  Mandmen and thousand pts of light probably more (0+ / 0-)

            influential on voters than a rasmussen poll if that's what you mean.

            Support good reform not a political party blindly.

            by Eposter on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 11:36:15 AM PDT

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            •  Is Rasmussen trying to influence voters... (0+ / 0-)

              or congress?

              I mean, if Razz is telling congress that HCR is less popular than it is and that Democrats are less popular than they are when they push HCR, then it might swing a few votes.

              Same thing with Public option or financial reform. Rasmussen does a lot of polling and could, potentially, skew the numbers.

              Does it swing congressional votes? Or the White House stance on an issue? 6 months out from an election (the only true poll), you can't prove they were wrong, but if your intent is to influence congressional votes, then it might be a nifty little wrench in the whole tool box along with Tea Bagger's screaming, Republicans disseminating and pundits pontificating.

              Then you move towards real numbers as the election comes closer and, viola! you're accurate!

              So, it's fair to ask what's going on. I think 538 is on the right track

              "Not smuggling--SNUGGLING. Tea baggers love sheep SNUGGLING! Do I have to draw you a friggin' picture?" Homogenius

              by liberte on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 12:33:06 PM PDT

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              •  Then the target of Rasmussen have to ignore other (0+ / 0-)

                polls to convince the congressman, the WH, the candidates and the voters to fall for the baloney poll numbers. Some people can argue people are that stupid and that may be the case. So far it looks more like people are giving Rasmussen magical powers to influence outcomes I seriously doubt.

                Support good reform not a political party blindly.

                by Eposter on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 12:38:45 PM PDT

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                •  Well, as I said... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  chrismorgan

                  It's a nifty little wrench in the tool box. Razz doesn't operate in a vacuum. There's think tanks, Fox News, tea Baggers and talk radio. Dare I say it...a right wing conspiracy.

                  This is, as I see it, a coordinated attack.

                  "Not smuggling--SNUGGLING. Tea baggers love sheep SNUGGLING! Do I have to draw you a friggin' picture?" Homogenius

                  by liberte on Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 02:19:34 PM PDT

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