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View Diary: Links to pictures of the Eyjafjallajokull Volcano due to copyright issues/ Other news articles (195 comments)

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  •  I am not a geologist however (3+ / 0-)

    I try to keep up with things as best I can (so take this with a grain of salt if you will).

    Volcanic eruptions are not predictable in the same way that the weather is. Everything I've read seems to indicate that eruptions are less subject to cyclic recurrence than earthquakes are, and even when it comes to quakes all that's available is a statistical likelihood of one happening over a given period of time. Many large volcanoes are monitored both seismically and in other ways and they generally do give warning signs prior to erupting but early indicators are by no means a guarantee that one will erupt, nor is there a way of being certain how intense the eruption will be nor how long it will last.

    On a news report Saturday, I heard a local (as in "local to Iceland") volcanologist opine that the current eruption was likely to subside over the next few days. What basis he had to make this prediction I have no idea but I presume he had some data to support his statement.

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