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View Diary: Beware of Greeks bearing debt (141 comments)

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  •  Slight difference (1+ / 0-)
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    greenearth

    I was looking and public debt. I didn't see anything about private debt.

     As for the Greek lying, considering the way the markets have reacted I doubt that it was all "known".

    "The people have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want & the courage to take." - Emma Goldman

    by gjohnsit on Tue Apr 27, 2010 at 02:28:26 PM PDT

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    •  It was all known (2+ / 0-)
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      gjohnsit, Cliss

      I've researched this. Eurostat put a report out on January 8, 2010 that explained its entanglement with the Greek stat service. The Greek stat service is very bad as it negotiates wills between two bureaucracies (one is a legit economic guardian while the other is a patronage heavy political supper club) fighting for hegemony. Each year, Eurostat publishes early stats for Greece that it publishes with reservations, and afterward, a methodological review is conducted on the ground in Athens, and Eurostat revises the early numbers. Eurostat's revisions are totally in line with the size of the debt problem in Greece as we know it today. Greece has been running a debt to GDP of 95% to 115% (115% in 2004!) for over a decade now. Presumably, if the numbers were fudged during this period, the debt to GDP would be a lot higher than it is now at 115%. After all, the numbers report a yearly budget deficit to GDP, and if that number is fudged or wrong, it impacts the total debt to GDP in ensuing years. Those numbers must always match. There is no fudging.

      The Eurostat report does state, however, that it gets bad stats from Greece initially every year (predictive stats) and the methodological review is necessary to produce published stats without reservation. This means Greece is dysfunctional, and dysfunction can be linked to mendacity, though not necessarily so.

      The story on Greek lies has its origin in the current government that wants to blame the previous one from the troubles, and deflect from its own complicity since it was in charge in some of those years. It's perhaps a smart idea to blame someone else so that you can enact needed reforms, but it has backfired on him badly.

      There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

      by upstate NY on Tue Apr 27, 2010 at 02:53:33 PM PDT

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      •  Did the market know? (1+ / 0-)
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        greenearth

        The reaction of the markets is proof that not everyone knew. Or if everyone knew, everyone underestimated the extent, which is sort of the same thing.

        "The people have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want & the courage to take." - Emma Goldman

        by gjohnsit on Tue Apr 27, 2010 at 03:54:03 PM PDT

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        •  I think that markets had assumed that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          greenearth

          the other EMU members would step up to the plate. It is their reluctance to do so that has created the market skepticism.

        •  Markets were lending to Greece just fine (1+ / 0-)
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          greenearth

          as of this February. Greece did a 5 billion deal on 10 year notes at 5.9%.

          The announcement of a restatement for 2009 expectations came in October of 2009.

          There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

          by upstate NY on Tue Apr 27, 2010 at 04:37:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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