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View Diary: GDP Up Again; Job Growth Will Continue to Strengthen (110 comments)

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  •  The stimulus is running out, GDP is bogus (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pletzs, NYFM, Brooke In Seattle

    The government stimulus is running down, look at the 2 previous quarters.

    we should not be running on what a great job we're doing because it will backfire when the stimulus effects have really run down by Nov.  Look at what's going on in Europe with the PIIGS, do you really think we have any chance of an historic recovery with the problems that caused this collapse still not resolved?

    The banks are still insolvent, they're not lending, foreclosures and personal bankruptcies are increasing, the price of oil is $85+, we haven't solved anything.  We just used our Chinese credit card in hopes everyone will jump on board and start buying again, but it isn't working.  

    We are dangerously building up false hope that will only backfire in Nov. and cost us votes.  

    •  Did you read the report (9+ / 0-)

      the government was a drain on GDP (to the tune of -.37).  This growth was entirely based on a rebound in personal consumption and and private investment.  

      •  Yes, take a look at some of this stuff; (0+ / 0-)

        Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.4 percent
        in the first quarter, compared with no change in the fourth.  National defense increased 1.2 percent, in
        contrast to a decrease of 3.6 percent.  Nondefense increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of
        8.3 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased
        3.8 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2 percent.

             The change in real private inventories added 1.57 percentage points to the first-quarter change in
        real GDP after adding 3.79 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change.  Private businesses increased
        inventories $31.1 billion in the first quarter, following decreases of $19.7 billion in the fourth quarter
        and $139.2 billion in the third.

        Businesses are building inventories (how long can that last?), there was a huge housing subsidy with the ripple effects of house purchases...

        Do you really believe these types of temporary expenditures are going to continue until Nov.?  Even if GDP is positive, it'll be trending down.  

        The stimulus was a gamble that didn't stimulate long term growth.  We should not be promoting this as we're going back to normal because we clearly are not.  It temporarily stopped a great depression.

        We can't run an election on, It's morning in America.

    •  You forgot to add (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aexia, kefauver, mnguy66, RenMin, MKSinSA

      "The sky is falling!!!" to your analysis.

      Seriously, if you believe the problems of the PIIGS have the same effect on our economy, you can't be more incorrect. Their growth during 2000's were off the chart compared to what should normally be expected.

      •  What do you think will happen Europe (0+ / 0-)

        when Greece and Portugal go down?  Do you really believe it won't effect the entire worlds economy?  Who will China sell to, and who will buy the US debt?

        •  There are so many more bullets left (0+ / 0-)

          in the gun before that happens.

          The ECB isn't inflating at all.

          Europe has not chosen the road of inflation yet.

          When it does, all will be forgiven.

          The Bundesbank is clinging tightly to its monetary policy, but Greece and Portugal might make Keynesians of them yet.

          There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

          by upstate NY on Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 08:12:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  They won't go down (0+ / 0-)

          It's not going to happen.

    •  GDP is bogus? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aexia, kefauver, RenMin, MKSinSA, LookingUp

      GDP represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities.

      No offense here, but you really need to understand the sum of economic indicators and their salience to an economy this size before you make such short-sighted comments.

      Oh, and as far as the price of oil, it stays where it is because demand is growing. Demand is growing because the American public is mobile and spending again. Lending isn't down just because lenders are tightening their belts. The American public is justifiably wary of debt.

      •  Just one problem with GDP (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NYFM, Brooke In Seattle

        Not even counting the problems with the seasonal adjustments;

        New York Times: The fundamental shortcoming is in the way imports are accounted for. A carburetor bought for $50 in China as a component of an American-made car, for example, more often than not shows up in the statistics as if it were the American-made version valued at, say, $100. The failure to distinguish adequately between what is made in America and what is made abroad falsely inflates the gross domestic product, which sums up all value added within the country.

        Demand for oil is growing?
        2000   19.7 mbl/day
        2010   18.84 mbl/day

        Consumption is lower than 10 years ago, and yet oil is $84/bbl?  There's a demand problem all right, but it's the demand for dollars, not oil.

    •  Other than that everything is peachy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Not enough gloom and doom this morning?  These GDP figures are good news, no matter how much nay-saying others attempt.

      "[W]e shall see the reign of witches pass over . . . and the people, recovering their true spirit, restore their government to its true principles." Jefferson

      by RenMin on Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 07:18:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pollyanna will not win in 2010 (0+ / 0-)

        Don't mean to be gloomy, but if we keep bragging how great everything is going to be, and in Nov. the economy is sinking back, or even stagnant, we're going to lose the house and maybe the senate.  This is equivalent to everyone bragging how much their house was growing in value in 2006.

    •  maybe you haven't noticed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but the Housing market is flying the last couple of months. Sure, it's mostly because of the Tax Credit, but it wouldn't work without Banks lending again.

      My wife and I just bought a house, right in time for the tax credit, and the banks were competing to lend the money to us.

      •  Flying? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pollwatcher, Brooke In Seattle

        Well, no, not really.

        You do realize that banks competing to lend money to buy overvalued homes is one of the core issues over the past couple of years (and that the artificial demand created by the tax credit is probably propping up home prices over the short term)?

        And that the money the banks are lending you is probably ultimately underwritten by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac (i.e., borrowed money going on the national debt)?

        And that foreclosures are at record levels?

        Oh, never mind.

        •  eh (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          a night owl, LookingUp

          Well no, the banks that were competing were Bank of America and Wells Fargo. We ultimately went with BofA who already paid off their TARP money - they had the best offer. Had nothing to do with borrowed money going on the national debt.

          The house was a great deal and not overvalued at all. There are many great deals out there, aside from foreclosures and people are becoming first time homeowners (like we are) at a great pace.

          There is a lot of struggling still to be seen in this economy, but from where we are sitting things are on the mend.

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