Skip to main content

View Diary: GDP Up Again; Job Growth Will Continue to Strengthen (110 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Unless there's a sea change. (0+ / 0-)

    What works under "normal" circumstances might not work so well under extraordinary circumstances.  A doubling of unemployment in a year, with administration estimates saying it will take many years to get back to previous levels, would be, in my estimation, extraordinary circumstances.  I am trying to determine if my perception is accurate or not.  Pimco executives, for instance, speak of a "new normal," and would the manner of measuring the old normal be as revealing, as accurate, in a new normal?  Of course we can't get inside the heads of respondents, but we actually try to do that at this site with any other poll, by looking at the questions, how they are framed, how they are worded and ordered, and how certain questions are asked when others are not.  By challenging assumptions.

    This survey was created, and is administered, by entities at the top of the economic food chain, with an interest in what they can learn to serve the preservation of the food chain they lead.  Surely even the kossacks most committed to a Wall Street point of view can bring themselves to acknowledge that such a survey could be inadvertently slanted toward the perspective of those administering it.  And if that perspective differs appreciably from that of most Americans' perceptions, the Survey can lead to trouble.  The "How could we have known?" defense that we've recently seen Wall Streeters posing to absolve themselves of any responsibility for the mess we're in.

    •  I have read the methodology (0+ / 0-)

      and the claims you are making are to be honest absurd.  The people conducting these surveys have no allegiance to uphold, they are lifelong bureaucrats, not appointees.  The survey itself has a huge sample size that greatly reduces the margin of error.  And the questioning is quite comprehensive (ie its more than just one question).  

      •  Thank you for dismissing my question as absurd... (0+ / 0-)

        ...instead of actually answering the question.

        Bureaucrats do, in fact, have an agenda.  They have people they need to satisfy to keep their jobs and pensions.  I am not saying that they must be intentionally skewing their surveys and the results to serve that agenda.  They would hopefully see the preservation of their jobs best served by being as conscientious as possible.  But the fact that such an agenda does exist should lead anyone looking at it to consider if any other agenda could bring different results.

        A large sample size is not a sure-fire cure for inaccurate results.  Several thousand answering a poorly conceived question can answer it just as inaccurately as a few dozen would.  Statistics notoriously lie.  One can learn things from them, but only if one is careful in weighing the sourcing and methodology.

        But pardon me, a desire to look past the surface is absurd.  Good argumentation skills you have there.  Good day, sir.

        •  Just because you don't like what they say (0+ / 0-)

          doesn't make the stats any less accurate.  As I have stated, I have read the methodology and it is quite sound.  You obviously have not.  You really need to stop looking for monsters in every closet and instead accept the FACT that the economy is improving and the recession is over.

          •  Your arrogance is showing. (0+ / 0-)

            I never said I'd looked over the methodology, and indeed I asked you about it in the expectation that you had.  I never said the economy is not improving.  I never said the recession is not over.  You are making those arguments up.

            What I DID do is simply ask you about the methodology, to see if it is as sound as you profess it is.  Sorry, I am not inclined just to take your word for it, as if it were inscribed by God on stone tablets for you to grace us with.  A sound methodology would be one that can withstand and even benefit from questioning.  Since you seem so protective of it, to the degree that you still have refused to answer my questions, maybe we should start challenging its soundness more.

    •  As far as I know the questions haven't changed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aexia, SilverOz

      And it would not be good survey technique it they were. The survey is administered by professional statisticians who are unlikely to skew their findings according to some hypothetical administrative whim. I've worked with government people in HHS, Census and BLS and, believe me, they take their responsibility to provide accurate statistics very seriously.

      You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".

      by yellowdog on Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 07:23:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site