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View Diary: Ohio Primary: Dems Take a Dive, and a Dive, and a Dive, and.... (164 comments)

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  •  no, that wasn't the result (1+ / 0-)
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    Ahianne

    Nobody lost any county by about 3 to 1, if I can trust the (unofficial, of course) results on the SoS website. Fisher did beat Brunner by about 2 to 1 in Pike, but in practical terms, she did much worse in Cuyahoga. And on the other side of the coin, she won 14 contiguous counties near the West Virginia border. She won Washington Co. (Marietta) almost as handily as Fisher won Pike, and her actual margin in votes (as of now) was more than twice as large.

    I don't have enough information to evaluate Brunner's campaign decisions, but at least I've learned not to rely on your factual assertions.

    •  I stand corrected partially (0+ / 0-)

      Brunner lost Scioto, Pike, Ross, and Pickaway all by close to 2 to 1, her four worst counties. I acknowledge I was going by late polls which had her losing here by 3 to 1. This is the area I was talking about, because I live in Pike, and these four counties -- the Route 23 corridor -- are a traditional political tour route. If you don't come, we punish you. So it was a mistake not coming.

      I went by the other comment about east Ohio. I'm pleased to learn that Brunner won in most of the southeast river counties.

      The difference, by the way, between the above two groups of counties is that the Route 23 corridor is tightly machine controlled, whereas the river counties are more dominated by anti-machine back-woods people. The reaction here was almost entirely either pro or anti-Fisher.

      If Brunner had visited, she could have gotten lots of free media and racked up higher wins or lower losses.

      "Politics: The conduct of public affairs for private advantage." -- Ambrose Bierce

      by Ohiobama on Wed May 05, 2010 at 03:51:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  closer, but you're not there yet (1+ / 0-)
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        Ahianne

        Again going by the current SoS figures, Brunner did worse in Cuyahoga than in two of those four counties.

        About 12,000 Democrats voted in the Senate contest in these four counties combined, including about 1300 in your home county of Pike (where Brunner did, percentage-wise, worst of all). Brunner lost Cuyahoga by about 32K, and the state by over 75K, as of now. (She lost Pike by about 457.)

        So it's hard for me to understand your certitude that Brunner made a horrible decision by prioritizing Cuyahoga over those four counties. I can't tell whether she would have yielded more votes per minute down by you, but I'm pretty sure that it didn't determine the election outcome. As to generally whether her campaign was too focused on cities, I can't tell, but I'm skeptical that a winning strategy was available to her.

        Regardless, she may have made some real mistakes, and your opinions on that score will probably be more persuasive -- not to mention better -- after you spend more time considering the results.

        •  Cuyahoga is Fisher's home county (0+ / 0-)

          I know the Cuyahogans, especially one of them, think they determine every election, and that every candidate should beat their head against the wall there non-stop.

          The reality, however, is that there's very little swing in Cuyahoga. You can pretty much determine how that county will go long in advance, based on the candidates.

          There's a huge amount of swing in south-central and parts of the southwest and southeast. Relatively small effort can bring a large differential in these counties.

          It's unfortunate that the Brunner campaign seems to have lacked advisers who understood the south -- and the fact that she won in many south counties is irrelevant.  She needed to rack up larger wins here to counterbalance Cuyahoga. But that meant neglecting some petulant Cuyahogans.

          "Politics: The conduct of public affairs for private advantage." -- Ambrose Bierce

          by Ohiobama on Thu May 06, 2010 at 03:33:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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