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View Diary: Polling and political wrap-up, 5/12/10 (55 comments)

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  •  When is Nate Silver going to update his Senate? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    The midterm Senate races are getting weirder all the time. I'm starting to think that maybe, just maybe, enough Republican incumbent/open seat losses can almost make up for some Democratic losses. A loss of three or four seats would not be that bad.

    Civil and productive arguments among citizens are impossible if they take place on alternate planes of reality

    by grinning dog on Wed May 12, 2010 at 07:54:58 PM PDT

    •  I think there's not going to be much change (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, flhiii88

      Both sides have too many seats to defend and frankly, the elections could end up being a total wash. The Dems will have control after November, there's no question of that, it's just a question of how big their margin of control will be.

      •  I was thinking it could be a wash too (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, flhiii88

        unless I am counting wrong.  Although the House will see some seats lost.

        •  That's to be expected (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, James Allen, flhiii88

          I have no doubt the GOP will gain some seats in the House. I just don't think it'll be anywhere near they need to rettake control. I'm still predicting GOP gains in the 15-20 seat margin, which would basically return the balance of power in the House to what it was after the 2006 elections. And that would be a colossal kick to the nuts to the GOP and a major morale blow, since they seem to feel that if they don't win back control, they've failed.

          •  considering they may lose a few seats, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            flhiii88

            like DE-AL, and LA-02, they have to win even more seats for a good net gain.  Yeah, I think they'll pick up 12-20 in the house.

            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau

            by James Allen on Wed May 12, 2010 at 08:59:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  With those two seats, it's more "they will lose" (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, flhiii88
              Having a couple of sure-fire wins in their back pockets gives the Dems a little bit of a cushion.

              The poll on Minnick having such a healthy lead in ID-01 is especially heartning (though it is against a "generic Republican," so who knows if it'll hold up when faced against a real opponent), because if the GOP can't knock off the likes of Minnick (who, looking at the demographics of his district, is arguably the most vulnerable Dem House incumbant), then they have no chance of serious gains in the House.

            •  I would consider such an outcome (0+ / 0-)

              really good for a party facing the economic situation the Democrats are facing and their lack of action on the jobs issue. Just goes to show how bad the GOP is.

          •  my guess is (0+ / 0-)

            that at most we will lose 30-32.

    •  I think we gain in the Senate.....here's why (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      xsonogall, mirandasright

      lose ND and IN and NV and AR

      Gain NC, IA, AZ, NH, OH, MO, LA, FL(either Meek or Crist)

      Look at how everything is falling together.

      IA-Grassley will have teabaggers turn on him.

      LA-Gulf Oil Spill takes care of diaper boy

      FL-win win for us if Rubio doesn't win.

      AZ-sleeper

      Now if only Pres. Obama hadn't plucked Sebelius from Kansas and instead urged her to run for the US Senate that would be another gain.

      We could end up with 63 realistically right now.  That isn't counting the fact that we could hold IN, NV, or AR.  Wow.

      Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

      by jalapeno on Wed May 12, 2010 at 09:02:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Delaware? Illinois? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        flhiii88
        And we couldn't have won Kansas even with Sebelius. No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate race since 1936, and that wouldn't have changed.
        •  they are safe. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Flaming Liberal for Jesus

          look at the Pennsylvania primary as the prime example.

          Specter was a shoe in until the George W. Bush ads started running.

          Delaware remembers bush.

          Illinois remembers Bush.

          W. is the gift that will keep giving and giving and giving.

          Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

          by jalapeno on Thu May 13, 2010 at 05:48:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Would absolutely love for that to happen.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jalapeno, v2aggie2

        ...but I'm not counting on it.  Rec'ced for the optimism though.

        If we picked up 63 senate seats next year, Ginsburg and Breyer can retire if they want to, and Obama can nominate Karlan and Wood.  

        "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

        by xsonogall on Wed May 12, 2010 at 09:48:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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