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View Diary: SCOTUS: Congress Can Lock Up Sexually Dangerous Persons (371 comments)

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  •  Child molesters? (0+ / 0-)

    I would really like to see the data on that.  Do you have a link?

    To the WH: "It's your job to f*ck-up power; it's Fox's job to f*ck-up truth.' - Jon Stewart

    by RichM on Mon May 17, 2010 at 10:23:53 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Wikipedia (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      According to the Office of Justice Programs of the United States Department of Justice,[3]  in New York State the recidivism rates for sex offenders have been shown to be lower than any other crime except murder. Another report from the OJP that studied recidivism of prisoners released in 1994 in 15 states accounting for two-thirds of all prisoners released in the United States that year,[4]  reached the same conclusion.

      You might want to check the actual sources listed, I don't know if I trust Wikipedia itself, but it sounds plausible.

      •  Try checking child sexual abuse (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JSC ltd

        Estimated rates of recidivism among child sex offenders vary. One study found that 42% of offenders re-offended (either a sex crime, violent crime, or both) after they were released. Risk for re-offense was highest in the first 6 years after release, but continued to be significant even 10–31 years later, with 23% offending during this time.[123] A study done in California in 1965 found a 18.2% recidivism rate for offenders targeting the opposite sex and a 34.5% recidivism rate for same-sex offenders after 5 years.[124]

        Different animal.

        A guy who rapes a girl after a drunk party is probably not a threat after 35 or 40.

        A guy with a compulsion to have sex with children frequently remains a threat until he dies.

        •  This doesn't answer (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Othniel Kenaz

          the question at issue, whether these recidivism rates are any worse than for non-sex-offenders.  If they're the same, then we need a justification for just locking sex offenders up forever and not robbers.

          Even by these states, well over half of "child sex offenders" do not re-offend, and some of those who do do not reoffend with another sex crime.  So if we confine sex offenders forever, we're needlessly incarcerating over half of the confined population, at enormous expense and enormous injustice.  And I have little confidence in the capacity of "criminal justice experts" to forecast the future, and know who will reoffend and who won't.

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