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View Diary: Weekly Tracking Poll: Grumpy Makes A Comeback (48 comments)

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  •  Keep MOE in MIND! (0+ / 0-)

    Unless the margin of error (MOE) is MORE THAN 2.8% from one period to the next, there has been no change!

    I know reading polls can be stressful, but that's the easiest way I know of to see a poll for what it is - a sample, with a margin of error, like every poll.

    Look at any poll you want; if it is a responsible organization, they will state what the margin of error is as well as the sample size AND confidence level.

    As you approach MOE of 5%, junk the poll results. If the sample size is too small, you'll get a larger MOE. If the confidence level is 90%, it is flaky; if 95%, it is OK.

    So, MOE of 2.8 right now. Candidates don't matter, but the MOE does. A is more than 2.8% - there has been change. B is NOT more than 2.8%, no change, and it goes from period to period, not just one point only.

    Does that help anyone? Do you like Obama more now? Or less?

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