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View Diary: 2010 Senate Race - Which seats will switch parties? (36 comments)

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    •  Interesting read (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Cedwyn, gph11

      thanks

      "No Groin.... No Krav Maga" - The Simpsons

      by volleyboy1 on Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 09:52:16 AM PDT

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    •  gph11 - well done! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gph11

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 10:02:40 AM PDT

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    •  On Arkansas you leave out important fact: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      annetteboardman, bear83, gph11

      Halter is the lieutenant governor -- in other words, he has already won a state-wide election.  I think the odds of a party flip are thus much closer to 50 per cent.

      •  Will depend on how the Ark Machine acts... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gph11

        towards Halter should he win.  He stepped on a lot of toes when he ran, will they cut off their nose to spite their face here? Will he be able to keep counting on the netroots and unions to bankroll his campaign?

        Politics is like playing Asteroids - You go far enough to the left and you end up on the right. Or vice-versa.

        by Jonze on Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 10:05:02 AM PDT

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    •  Two doomsters in your poll, eh? (0+ / 0-)

      Who think Republicans take over the senate.  

      Personally, I think you're a tad pessimistic about Kentucky, from what I've read. Yeah, yeah, I know it tends to be a Republican state but from the Kentuckians I know, Rand Paul is just too far out. My college roommate, who lives in Lexington, is a lifelong Republican from a Republican family, and her political beliefs line up more with mine than Rand Paul's.

      I wish I could share your optimism about Ohio but being here on the ground and seeing the factors – including Republican grassroots enthusiasm for Portman and lack of it on our side, and Portman's ability to sound reasonable and concerned about jobs and to cover up his job-killing track record believably.

      The only path to pickup I see is huge Democratic turnout and a real upsurge in enthusiasm for the entire ticket which carries all offices with it. The Ohio Democratic Party is well-staffed, well-resourced and plans to run a huge coordinated campaign with the whole ticket — and that COULD carry everyone. On the downside, they seem to feel they can brush away the activists they've alienated and not address their concerns. They're glossing over the fact that they clung to a radical anti-choice, anti-gay radical candidate for secretary of state for six months, virtually dismissing anyone who expressed concerns. I think this has cost them more in grassroots activism than they think. Add the ugly finish to the Senate primary, and you've got wounds that need time to heal.

      On the upside, there's Tea Party-endorsed Eric Deaton who is running under the Constitution Party banner. But I honestly don't know how to assess his potential impact. I won't give my usual pessimistic assessment but maybe a slightly more realistic one: 75% chance Portman wins.

      Time to garden and kick Republican ass.

      by anastasia p on Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 10:20:18 AM PDT

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    •  Intrade says 53-47, Dems/GOP (0+ / 0-)

      For what it's worth...

      The GOP 47 contract, last trade at 50, with a bid/ask of 41/55

      http://www.intrade.com/...

      Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. http://www1.hamiltonproject.org/es/hamilton/hamilton_hp.htm

      by PatriciaVa on Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 10:26:50 AM PDT

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