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View Diary: 2010 Senate Race - Which seats will switch parties? (36 comments)

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  •  Two doomsters in your poll, eh? (0+ / 0-)

    Who think Republicans take over the senate.  

    Personally, I think you're a tad pessimistic about Kentucky, from what I've read. Yeah, yeah, I know it tends to be a Republican state but from the Kentuckians I know, Rand Paul is just too far out. My college roommate, who lives in Lexington, is a lifelong Republican from a Republican family, and her political beliefs line up more with mine than Rand Paul's.

    I wish I could share your optimism about Ohio but being here on the ground and seeing the factors – including Republican grassroots enthusiasm for Portman and lack of it on our side, and Portman's ability to sound reasonable and concerned about jobs and to cover up his job-killing track record believably.

    The only path to pickup I see is huge Democratic turnout and a real upsurge in enthusiasm for the entire ticket which carries all offices with it. The Ohio Democratic Party is well-staffed, well-resourced and plans to run a huge coordinated campaign with the whole ticket — and that COULD carry everyone. On the downside, they seem to feel they can brush away the activists they've alienated and not address their concerns. They're glossing over the fact that they clung to a radical anti-choice, anti-gay radical candidate for secretary of state for six months, virtually dismissing anyone who expressed concerns. I think this has cost them more in grassroots activism than they think. Add the ugly finish to the Senate primary, and you've got wounds that need time to heal.

    On the upside, there's Tea Party-endorsed Eric Deaton who is running under the Constitution Party banner. But I honestly don't know how to assess his potential impact. I won't give my usual pessimistic assessment but maybe a slightly more realistic one: 75% chance Portman wins.

    Time to garden and kick Republican ass.

    by anastasia p on Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 10:20:18 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for your Ohio news (0+ / 0-)

      I could only assume that Portman has an excellent ground game, and that Lee Fischer is channeling Martha Coakley.

      We'll see what happens.  I think it will be tight, though.

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