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View Diary: Gallup: Enthusiasm gap wider than ever (157 comments)

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  •  Compared to your previous colonoscopy, (0+ / 0-)

    how enthus....

    Compared to the last time you had sex with a supermodel,....  

    I'm less enthusiastic about voting because I was over-enthusiastic the last time. Besides, the baseball game I was enthusiastic about got rained out moments before Gallup called.

    I'm not convinced that this particular poll is a useful predictor as some believe. Gallup asserts that it seems to be an accurate predictor because it happens to correlate with the results, but they don't explain any reasoning behind this assertion. The results could simply be coincidental. There's no argument offered either way.

    Gallup informs us that the early polls failed to predict the results in 1996. Oops. They explain that this was ok because the final poll taken right before the 1996 midterms had swung away from the early polls by 2%. Of course this was still inside the +-4% range of error, statistically inconclusive.

    So the conclusion I reach is that the very last poll taken immediately before the election historically appears correlate with actual results - maybe. This fails for me.

    Gallup's reputation remains intact - maybe.

    "All people are born alike - except Republicans and Democrats" - Groucho Marx

    by GrumpyOldGeek on Mon Jun 21, 2010 at 07:52:36 PM PDT

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