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View Diary: Can an electoral wave wash out a financial edge? (132 comments)

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  •  Two Answers... (1+ / 0-)
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    1. I did not include independent spending. That would have taken a little more data acquisition time than I had, since (unless there was a faster way I never considered) it would require me to go through the expenditures of the major groups (NRCC/DCCC, varied interest groups) individually by quarter. But I don't disagree about its value. But in recent years, at least, I have noticed that in the bigger races independent money has been somewhat of a wash.
    1. Not as well. A lot of other variables fit in Senate races that don't apply to House races, not the least of which is that only a fraction of seats are up at any given time. One of the reasons, for example, that 2008 was such an awesome year for Dems in the Senate is that the GOP's fairly strong results in 2002 meant that they had a lot more turf to defend in the Senate than the Dems did. Therefore, climate is a lot harder to gauge, since you are also subject to the number of available seats you have to mine.

    "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
    Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

    by Steve Singiser on Sun Jul 11, 2010 at 08:52:25 AM PDT

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