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View Diary: The biggest stumbling block for Republicans this fall is that they are Republicans (247 comments)

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    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 09:44:41 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  are the polls corrected for voter registration? (0+ / 0-)

      i.e., percentage of Dems vs Republicans vs. Indies?

      There are more Dems, aren't there, than Republicans?

      So unless the percentages are corrected for population Ns, they are somewhat misleading.

      But maybe I'm missing something about the way these polls are reported?

      •  they are uusally reported as (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        rv or registered voters (Rasmussen does LV or likely voters, most others do not until close to the election.)

        But traditionally, there's a lean in the reports to the D side in this order:

        all voters > registered voters > likely voters

        partly because older voters vote more reliably and also skew R. So, a tie vote for "who do you favor in congress, D or R" (aka the generic ballot because there's no names or individualsd attached) generally is interpreted as favoring Rs.

        Some organizations weight the results to reflect D-R registration, or voting pattern from last election, and some do not (but all do so for demographics to match the census.) Read the "how we conducted this poll" section for margin of error and more detail... the good polls tell yuo what they did.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 11:16:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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