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View Diary: The Iraq Election: Defining Success (489 comments)

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  •  i don't care about the elections... (none)
    ...because they really don't matter. the interesting elections will come alon next year after the constitution, which is probably already drafted, will be in place.

    And I am looking forward to see the coalition to adopt additional sunnites to the new legislative body - also a very democratic move. One I actually agree with.

    "I'm not much of a Zen person, but I've learned that the best way to gain power is to give it away." Howard Dean

    by jandsm on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 08:31:25 AM PST

    •  I'm really curious (none)
      as to how the turnout went from 72% all morning to 60% after people started doing some basic math -- the populations of Fallujah, Mosul, Sammara, etc. where polling stations weren't even open.

      Seriously, how can overall voter turnout drop as the day goes on? It can't.

      But yes, these elections are just the beginning... and we'll have to see what happens as the politicians try to start governing the country with escalating security concerns and then try to agree on a constitution without at least 20% of the country participating.

      Jaded Reality... I've had enough spin for today thanks...

      by spiderleaf on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:07:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  more than 100.000 potential voters are dead... (none)
        ...because of a mismanaged occupation. that's the number that counts for me

        "I'm not much of a Zen person, but I've learned that the best way to gain power is to give it away." Howard Dean

        by jandsm on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:10:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Consider this... (4.00)
        50% turnout = 7 million votes

        5500 polling stations/6.75 million votes*=1227 vote per precints

        (Generous assumption of 100% turnout expatriate vote)

        Now considering your point of no voting in major cities, the failure of polling places to operate elsewhere, and that there is only one report of a polling place (in Basra) where turnout might hit 1 vote per minute (a sufficient number of votes in the precinct to make this needed average in 20.5 hours of voting) it's pretty clear all claims of high turnout can be dismissed.

        Ye that dare oppose not only tyranny but the tyrant stand forth! - Thomas Paine

        by Lcohen on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 09:41:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are you sure? (none)
          BBC Reporters' log: Iraqi elections

          Seems turnout in the Shiite South and in the Kurdish regions was high. And very low in the Sunni regions.

          And by the way, the expatriate vote was around 25%.

          Expatriate Iraqis head to polls

          •  Even assuming 85% (none)
            in the North and South, more than 50% of the population lives in the center including Baghdad and Sunni triangle. 85% seems improbable given that Mosul the third largest was described as deserted by the WaPo and that even Irbil in the Kurdish territory did not start seeing turnout according to the BBC until more than three hours into the nine hour voting window.

            Ye that dare oppose not only tyranny but the tyrant stand forth! - Thomas Paine

            by Lcohen on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 11:38:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Great point. To apply your calculation further (none)
          to a 72% turnout (10.08 million voters, 5500 poll stations), works out to an average of 3.4 voters per minute (each casting two [1 local,1 national] ballots, per poll station over the 9 hr (8 am-5 pm)voting period).

          If then figure in that probably 10% of the above 5500 polling stations were not even operational because of safty threats to voters or poll workers,  that would mean that the average voting rate at the remaining ~4900 stations was nearly 4 voters (3.77) per minute per poll location over the entire 9 hr period.

          Remember. This election is being conducted in a backward country largely without electricity in most areas, and with all voters proceding through a double security check (outside of and then inside the poll station) before being allowed to fill out and cast two ballots per voter.

          Now imagine going that fast through an airport security checkline before being allowed to proceed to the boarding gate, and you can appreciate how totally implausible are the "GoodNews" numbers the bushco cable corporate media are pushing about the Iraq election.

          •  30% of the registered electorate voted (none)
            This is the third time I've posted this figure.
            Just came from Jane Aguba, CNN.

            I think it's important to get rid of the over inflated White House figure of 72%

            To thine own self be true - W.S.

            by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 11:28:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  30%? (none)
              that's quite the drop... do you have a link or was it just on air?

              Jaded Reality... I've had enough spin for today thanks...

              by spiderleaf on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 11:57:41 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Just on the air on CNN (none)
                Greater than any expectations. Guess those expectations were low.

                To thine own self be true - W.S.

                by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 12:07:31 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  CNN is where I heard the 72% figure this morning!? (none)
                  Please pass along link to the 30 % number if you have it handy. I will search for it too.
                  •  I heard it on CNN from Jan Aguba (none)
                    reporting from Iraq, now I know someone else heard it too.

                    She emphasized that it was still a great turnout under these conditions.

                    Don't forget the 72% figure was from the US (probably the White House) not from Iraq.

                    If you want confirmation, try BBC or other foreign news.

                    To thine own self be true - W.S.

                    by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 12:38:56 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Jane Aquba, ph spelling (none)

                      To thine own self be true - W.S.

                      by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 12:39:56 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I guess we should give both 30% and 72% (none)
                      figures much doubt since they both came out of CNN/Bushco pipeline.

                      Lets keep looking for real numbers (dreaming here).

                      •  No, the lower number was from Iraq (none)
                        the higher number was from the Bush propaganda machine.

                        To thine own self be true - W.S.

                        by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 12:54:03 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •   Aren't they are one and the same? (none)
                          Besides that, both the 30% and 72% (and the 61%) values are likely to be fictions, all were widely reported, by  Iraqi sources (probably bushco controlled) as well as Bushco controlled domestic sources.

                          BAGHDAD, Jan. 30 (Xinhuanet) -- Polling officially closed acrossIraq at 5:00 p.m. (1400 GMT) Sunday with a better than expected voter turnout in the landmark elections, the Independent ElectoralCommission said.

                              Three hours before the closure of the vote, Adel al-Lami, amember of the commission, put the turnout rate at 72 percent.

                              However, electoral officials scaled down the figure at a newsbriefing shortly after the poll, saying 72 percent was compiled based on "estimates" and there were about 8 million Iraqis who might have voted [emphasis mine], about 61 percent of eligible voters.

                              The turnout rate was subject to change since there were still voters waiting in line who would be allowed to cast ballots, election authorities said.

                              Vote count has begun at some 5,300 polling centers across then country and a final result of the elections was expected in at least 10 days.

                          •  Lou Dobbs says 90% (none)
                            in some areas. I had to turn him off, I was afraid that his gushing would short out my tv. :-)

                            The number quoted by Jane Aquba was from election officials on the ground in Iraq. Whatever, if will be days before any truth filters out.

                            To thine own self be true - W.S.

                            by Agathena on Sun Jan 30, 2005 at 02:06:47 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

      •  In NYT story (none)
        Mosul was open, and people were voting.

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